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Showing posts from April, 2015

The Official Picks!

Kentucky Oaks Picks   This years Oaks is much like this years Derby with four or five fillies that have a real chance at taking the race. You have some classy speed fillies and two quality closing fillies. It's going to be a very good race, and I cannot wait to see who wears the Lillies. 
Win Plays : Birdatthewire-Classy, classy, filly that has one of the best closing punches of this group of three year old fillies. She will move forward after some tough races over the Gulfstream Park oval, and will likely be a nice overlay at 7-1 or higher.  

Stellar Wind-This very nice California filly is simply to good to ignore very impressive victory last out in the Santa Anita Oaks should set her up well for a top effort in here. 

Place Plays: I'm A Chatterbox-  This filly really blossomed out at the Fairgrounds this winter and deserves a long look in here. I don't think she will be able to hold off the late charges of either Stellar Wind or Birdatthewire, but I do fully expect this …

Winners and Losers of the Post Draw

Winners 
Dortmund drew inside of of the speed, but he has the shortest distance to the rail without actually being on the rail. If he breaks good this is a perfect spot for this big horse. 
Firing Line another that got just the right post as he will be breaking from post ten which puts him smack in the middle right where you want to be. 
Mubtaahij the six post is really going to help this horse it will put him right behind the speed and give him a solid spot to stalk. 
Bob Baffert for once Bob didn't draw the rail in the Derby looks like things are finally going to play out the way he wants. 

Losers 
Ocho Ocho Ocho is an obvious loser here and he will need to drop back and settle which actually may help this colt. 
Carpe Diem not a good spot for this colt he will be one of the first horses to load and with his previous gate issues this wont be a good spot for this colt. 
Materiality he will have to send from post three which is not ideal for this colt. 
Todd Pletcher I'm sure …

Deeper Look Part Five

13. Danzig Moon 
Malibu Moon- Leaveminthedust by Danzig

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 1
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $251,120

Connections:  Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Owner: John C. Oxley

Derby Points: 45 

Last Race: Bluegrass Stakes
Last Race Finish: 2nd


Class: Steadily improving colt that is going to get better with more racing experience. He has a lot of ability, but he probably isn't quite ready for the type of competition he will be facing Saturday. He will get there with time, but this is one who is probably a cut below some of the top horses in here.

Pedigree: His sire has sired a Derby winner in Orb, and will probably sire another one before his stallion career is over. That being said I don't think Danzig Moon will be that horse. His pedigree does have some distance elements to it, but has a relatively high dosage index of 3.44, and from what I visually see from this colt I don't think he really wants to go this far.

Overall Opinion: Ni…

Deeper Look Part Four

10. Far Right 
Notional - Zindi by Vindication

Career Statistics:
Starts: 9
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $625,766


Connections:
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owner: LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. 
Derby Points: 62 
Last Race: Arkansas Derby  Last Race Finish: 2nd 


Class: Despite the drubbing he received last out courtesy of American Pharoah I strongly feel this one actually may have a better chance at taking the roses than American Pharoah does. Far Right posses one of the best closing kicks of this crop and will really appreciate the added distance of the Derby. You have to remember in the Arkansas Derby he was coming off a short lay off with only two works so, he was definitely not 100% cranked for the Arkansas Derby. Strongly expect him to move forward off that effort, and you could very possibly get some good odds on him on Derby day. 
Pedigree: He is bred to run all day, and with his closing style I have no doubts that he will handle the distance of the Ke…

Deeper Look Part Three

7. Materiality 
Afleet Alex- Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr

Career Statistics:
Starts: 3
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $656,028

Connections:  Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Alto Racing, LLC  
Derby Points: 100

Last Race: Florida Derby  Last Race Finish: 1st 


Class: Very talented individual that has loads of potential. We don't really know how good this colt really is as  he has had only three career starts and seems to get better every time he steps foot on the track. He never started as a two year old so he has the Apollo curse to deal with, but like all records the curse will fall one day just a question of whether or not this is the colt to do it. He doesn't look like he wants to run very far, but he does have the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter. 
Pedigree: With Afleet Alex on top it gives Materiality a good dose of stamina, and a good dose of heart. He has a decent dosage index of 2.33 which is not the worst of this crop. His broodmare sire ten…

Deeper Look Part Two

4. American Pharoah 
Pioneerof The Nile- Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 4
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,411,500 
Connections:  Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC 
Derby Points: 160 
Last Race: Arkansas Derby  Last Race Finish: 1st 


Class: No question he has some serious talent, but there is a strong worry that he won't get the distance. He has no flaws except he needs to be on or right off the lead which if a quick pace develops he will have no chance. He does everything like a good horse should, but I really think he will have some issues with the distance of the Derby. 
Pedigree: He has a dosage index of 4 which does not bode well for his chances at getting a mile and a quarter. His sire did run second in the Kentucky Derby, but he was never a challenge to the winner that year who happened to be Mine That Bird. His dam side is straight sprinter speed his broodmare sire is Yankee Gentleman who was primarily …

Deeper Look Part One

1. International Star 
Fusaichi Pegasus- Parlez by French Deputy

Career Statistics:
Starts: 9
Firsts: 5
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,010,979

Connections:  Jockey: Miguel Mena
Trainer: Michael J. Maker
Owner: Ramsey, Kenneth L. and Sarah K. 
Derby Points: 171  
Last Race: Louisiana Derby  Last Race Finish: 1st 


Class: Major questions about his ability as it doesn't look like he beat much in any of his races so far this year. He will have to make a major leap forward in the Derby to even have a chance to hit the board. He is one of the few stone cold closers this year, but being a closer is not usually a good thing in the Derby unless there is a major pace meltdown. He is a very brave individual though and doesn't seem to be afraid to go through the tiniest of holes which can only help him come Derby day. He also has an issue with his leads which he will need to get figured out before Derby day.
Pedigree: He is by a Kentucky Derby winner in Fusaichi Pegasus which gives him a little do…

Derby Six for 3/12/15

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our  by Tale Of The Cat
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.



Derby Points: 170 

Still feel that he is the cream of this crop, and has the best pedigree to get the distance though there is still a question of whether or not he will handle a mile and a quarter. With his size he cannot afford any trouble in the derby which could be his only fatal flaw. This is one seriously talented individual and as he is undefeated you cannot discount what he has achieved so far in a short, but stellar career.


Last Race: Santa Anita Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st





2. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: Todd Pletcher Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm


Derby Points: 164 


This is another that has loads of ability. He also has the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter which makes him super dangerous come May. His pedigree does lean towards unsoundness though which is a major concern. If he…

Derby Six for April 7th 2015

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat  Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 170 

Very impressed with his victory in the Santa Anita Derby this weekend. He fought off all challenges, and managed to have another gear after running a 22 opening quarter not many horses can do that at a mile and an eighth. That was just the performance I was looking for from this horse. He is starting to remind me a lot of his sire except for the fact that his sire had an incredibly explosive turn of foot. Dortmund doesn't quite have that acceleration, but he does have quite the high cruising speed. Still feel he is heads and shoulders above everyone else in this crop. Only question is can he get a mile and a quarter, but many of the horses in this crop look to have the same question to answer.

Last Race: Santa Anita Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st






2. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song Jockey: John Velazquez …