Saturday, April 18, 2015

Deeper Look Part Three

7. Materiality 
Afleet Alex- Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr

Career Statistics:
Starts: 3
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $656,028

Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Alto Racing, LLC  

Derby Points: 100

Last Race: Florida Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

Class: Very talented individual that has loads of potential. We don't really know how good this colt really is as  he has had only three career starts and seems to get better every time he steps foot on the track. He never started as a two year old so he has the Apollo curse to deal with, but like all records the curse will fall one day just a question of whether or not this is the colt to do it. He doesn't look like he wants to run very far, but he does have the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter. 

Pedigree: With Afleet Alex on top it gives Materiality a good dose of stamina, and a good dose of heart. He has a decent dosage index of 2.33 which is not the worst of this crop. His broodmare sire tends to produce horses that want to run six furlongs and shorter so there is a worry that he won't get the distance. 

Overall Opinion: Materiality is a nice colt, and another interesting shot at the Apollo curse though there is a worry that he won't get the Derby distance. 

Final Decision: Materiality is a contender. 

8. El Kabeir  
Scat Daddy- Great Venue by Unbridled's Song 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 9
Firsts: 4
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $768,892

Jockey: Charles C. Lopez
Trainer: John P. Terranova, II
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC 

Derby Points: 95 

Last Race: Wood Memorial 
Last Race Finish: 3rd 

Class: Spent the whole winter beating up on what a was a questionable crop of New York three year olds. He is a nice throwback horse who seems to always run his race and can beat you anywhere on the race track which is a good trait to have heading into the Derby. Strong worries about whether or not he will handle the Derby distance, but with his new found closing style he may be able to just make the distance. 

Pedigree: His sire Scat Daddy was a non threat in the Derby when he ran and didn't seem to want any part of the distance. His sire also has an average offspring winning distance of 6.9 furlongs which does not bode well for his chances at the Derby distance. His broodmare sire Unbridled's Song also does not have a great track record of producing horses that want a route of ground. Overall his pedigree does not really scream a mile and a quarter he also has a dosage index of 3.57 which also shows he probably will not get the Derby distance. 

Overall Opinion: Nice hard knocking horse, but will probably be best suited to a mile and an eighth and shorter. 

Final Decision: El Kabeir is a pretender. 

9. Upstart 
Flatter- Party Silks by Touch Gold 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $971,480 

Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Trainer: Richard A. Violette, Jr.
Owner: Ralph M. Evans

Derby Points: 76 

Last Race: Florida Derby 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 

Class: He is a very talented individual, but he seems to be on a regressive form cycle which is a bit of a worry. He also ran like a tired horse in both the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby which has me thinking he doesn't want to run that far. Some blame the track at Gulfstream which was extremely quirky this winter, I on the other hand feel this colt is not up to par with some of the others this year. He wasn't able to get past some of the best as a two year old, and he hasn't made any jumps forward that make me think he could possibly beat American Pharoah or Dortmund. 

Pedigree: Many think his pedigree is loaded with stamina, but it actually is a false pretense. His sire was only really able to produce one horse that could get a mile and a quarter and that was Flat Out. His broodmare sire Touch Gold could get a route of ground, but hasn't really produced anything that wanted to run that far. Upstart also has a dosage index of a flat three so that also does not bode well for his chances at  the Derby Distance. 

Overall Opinion: Upstart is on a regressive form cycle, and doesn't seem to want to run a distance farther than a mile and an eighth. 

Final Decision: Upstart is a pretender. 

Tune in next time as I take a deeper look into; Far Right, Itsaknockout, and Firing Line! 

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