Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Official Picks!

Kentucky Oaks Picks  

This years Oaks is much like this years Derby with four or five fillies that have a real chance at taking the race. You have some classy speed fillies and two quality closing fillies. It's going to be a very good race, and I cannot wait to see who wears the Lillies. 

Win Plays : 

Birdatthewire-  Classy, classy, filly that has one of the best closing punches of this group of three year old fillies. She will move forward after some tough races over the Gulfstream Park oval, and will likely be a nice overlay at 7-1 or higher.  

Stellar Wind- This very nice California filly is simply to good to ignore very impressive victory last out in the Santa Anita Oaks should set her up well for a top effort in here. 

Place Plays: 

I'm A Chatterbox-  This filly really blossomed out at the Fairgrounds this winter and deserves a long look in here. I don't think she will be able to hold off the late charges of either Stellar Wind or Birdatthewire, but I do fully expect this one to fight to the finish.

Show Plays: 

Condo Commando- Can't ignore this very talented filly, but I'm not quite sure how good she really is definitely not one to leave out of the exotics, but I feel she won't be the winner come Friday. 

Longs Shots To Watch: 

Puca- Deserves a long look, and really hasn't hit her best stride quite yet.  

Angela Renee- Classy filly that though she has had a rough winter always throws a big race when it matters. 

Kentucky Derby Picks 

This years Derby is one of the hardest to handicap, and is probably one of the best Derby fields we have seen in a long time. You could make a case for ten horses, and I wouldn't question your decision. This years Triple Crown trail looks like it's going to be one for the ages! 

Win Plays: 

Dortmund- With the amount of heart, and natural ability this one has I just don't really see anyone getting by him during that long Churchill stretch run. He's got the heart he has the speed all he needs is some luck and a good trip. 

American Pharoah- Though I have said I don't think he will win, if this colt gets the distance he could very well steal this one, but again he has to get the distance which is a major question mark. 

Place Plays: 

Mubtaahij- Strongest runner we have ever seen from Dubai hands down. I worry about the travel he has had to go through in the last couple months, and the fact that he had a change in feed those are the only reasons I wouldn't play him to win. 

Keen Ice- Love this colts closing style, and the fact that he has Kent Desormeaux in the irons only helps. He will be a huge long shot Derby day, but will definitely get you the returns if he hits the board. 

Show Plays: 

Far Right- Another with a lot of closing ability that will be a nice price Derby day. He may be far behind turning for home, but he has a monster stretch kick that can carry him past anyone. He is one that is crying for a mile and a quarter and should improve second off the layoff. 

Itsaknockout- Pletcher sends at least five every year and I've found that his least talked about runner always runs the best. Loved his work with Materiality, and think he is handling the Churchill surface a lot better than he was Gulfstream. 

Long Shots To Look Out For 

Bolo- Though he will probably be better on grass in the near future. I can't ignore the fact that Churchill plays kindly to grass and synthetic horses, and with this colts very explosive turn of foot he deserves a long look in here. 

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