Saturday, March 28, 2015

Derby Six for 3/28/15

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat 
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 70  

Was flattered by a huge performance by Firing Line in the Sunland Derby, but you have to wonder the class of the field Firing Line beat. Though there is no question Dortmund is heads and shoulders above everyone in this division so far this year. There is a question of if he will get the distance, but with the way he strides out and how large of a colt he is I don't think it will be to much of an issue for this very talented son of Big Brown.

Last Race: San Felipe Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st





2. Keen Ice 
Curlin- Medomak by Awesome Again
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Derby Points: 22 


Here's hoping he has enough points to get in. Still really impressed with this colt and he continues to make jumps forward. He's got the pedigree to run all day and he loves Churchill Downs. I know the mile and a quarter is exactly what this colt needs and I fully expect him to be a large price derby day. With so many of this years three year olds not having the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter this colt could come flying and topple the card table at a large price.

Last Race: Louisiana Derby
Last Race Finish: 4th








3. Far From Over 
Blame- Alchemist by A P Indy
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, LLP 

Derby Points: 10   

Going to have to run lights out next weekend in the Wood Memorial to make it in the Derby. That's a tall task for any colt especially one who only has two life time career starts. No question he has ability and the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter, but I strongly feel his greenness could get him beat come the first Saturday in May.


Last Race: Withers Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st





4. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm


Derby Points: 64  

Punched his ticket to Louisville with a win in the Tampa Bay Derby sounds like next out will be the Bluegrass Stakes at a track and distance he has already proven he likes. This colt has one of the smoothest strides of a racehorse I have ever seen he has no wasted action and has a long fluid stride. He will only get better with time and seems to improve every start. He may regress slightly in the Bluegrass, but that is perfectly fine sometimes they have to take a step back to make a leap forward.

Last Race: Tampa Bay Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st







5. Mubtaahij 
Dubawi- Pennegale by Pennekamp
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Michael F. de Kock
Owner: Sheikh Mohd bin Khalifa al Maktoum 

Derby Points: 100 

Solidly stamped himself as a very serious racehorse with a huge win in the UAE Derby, but I have to question just exactly how good the field he faced was. I don't doubt his ability though as he was arguably the most impressive UAE Derby winner I have ever seen. He has a pedigree that enables him to run all day, and with two very impressive efforts at a mile and three sixteenths he is undoubtedly fit enough to run a mile and a quarter. Only worry is no horse has run well coming from the UAE, but I'm thinking this colt may just be the exception to the rule. If anyone is going to ship a horse from UAE with a serious chance at the Kentucky Derby it's Mike de Kock his over seas record is almost better than his at home record. He certainly knows how to ship a horse, and still get the best result from them. 

Last Race: UAE Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 





6. Materiality 
Afleet Alex- Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr 
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Alto Racing, LLC 

Derby Points: 100 

This one might be something really special the way he battled with Upstart and put him away has me very impressed. He also has the pedigree to get the distance and is still a learning and developing colt also you can't knock an undefeated horse who has shown he has equal parts heart and ability. He's only going to get better from here. 

Last Race: Florida Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 


Monday, March 9, 2015

Derby Six for 3/9/15

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat 
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 70 


Very impressive effort in the San Felipe cemented his position as the top three year old in training right now. His bottom side of his pedigree doesn't exactly scream distance, but his sire was able to get a mile and a quarter. He just seems to be head and shoulders above everyone I've seen this year, and if he stays healthy this colt could be very special.


Last Race: San Felipe Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st







2. Keen Ice 
Curlin- Medomak by Awesome Again
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Derby Points: 12 


Super impressive run in the Risen Star, and with a little more ground this colt will only get better. He needs a long stretch and he will get that at Churchill Downs he is only going to get better with time and distance. Being by Curling out of an Awesome Again mare this colt is literally crying for a mile and a quarter. He could be a major long shot in the Kentucky Derby, but he needs to earn the points next out in the Louisiana Derby which means he must run first or second to even make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby. If he gets the points this colt could be a real live long shot in the Kentucky Derby.

Last Race: Risen Star Stakes
Last Race Finish: 3rd
 




3. Far From Over 
Blame- Alchemist by A P Indy
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, LLP 

Derby Points: 10  


They bypassed the Gotham to wait for the Wood Memorial in this case it's a major negative against his chances towards a Kentucky Derby win. This colt needs all the experience he can get and by skipping the Gotham Stakes this past weekend he missed a race he could of very easily won and gained loads of experience. Again I don't train the colt and I'm not around him every day, but that being said this conservative path he is taking is not the right way to go with a colt that has only had two starts and seems to still be a little green.

Last Race: Withers Stakes  


Last Race Finish: 1st 




4.  Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm


Derby Points: 64 

Very impressive first out this past weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby. He made the necessary improvement from two to three, and still has to room to improve even more. Looks like next out will be the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland which is a track he's already proven he loves. This colt is likely only going to get better as the distances get longer, and by the way he made his three year old debut this weekend he is ready to take this division by storm. 

Last Race: Tampa Bay Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 




5. Mr.Z 
Malibu Moon- Stormy Bear by Storm Cat
Jockey: John Court
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Zayat Stables
Derby Points: 14 

Regains a position on this list because of a bunch of poor performances by some of my top picks. He is a very classy colt and sounds like they are going to take the blinkers off of him next out which is going to move this colt forward quite a bit. They are looking at the Louisiana Derby next for him which is critical as he needs the points right now. He is bred to run all day and is only going to get better with age and experience. 

Last Race: Southwest Stakes 
Last Race Finish: 3rd 





6. Far Right 
Notional- Zindi by Vindication 
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owner: LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. 

Derby Points: 22 

It's time to give credit where credit is due. This colt has been knocking on the door of my derby six since his win in the Smarty Jones. He finally gets a shot on here, his pedigree is actually a lot more stamina laden than you originally would think and he shares a relative with California Chrome a couple generations back. He seems to have gotten better as a three year old and just seems to keep improving with every out. With Mike Smith as his pilot I could see this colt giving Mike his second set of roses. 


Last Race: Southwest Stakes 
Last Race Finish: 1st