Sunday, April 12, 2015

Derby Six for 3/12/15

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our  by Tale Of The Cat
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.



Derby Points: 170 

Still feel that he is the cream of this crop, and has the best pedigree to get the distance though there is still a question of whether or not he will handle a mile and a quarter. With his size he cannot afford any trouble in the derby which could be his only fatal flaw. This is one seriously talented individual and as he is undefeated you cannot discount what he has achieved so far in a short, but stellar career.


Last Race: Santa Anita Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st





2. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm


Derby Points: 164 


This is another that has loads of ability. He also has the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter which makes him super dangerous come May. His pedigree does lean towards unsoundness though which is a major concern. If he stays healthy, and makes it in he has a huge shot to win the roses. Another major issue for this one is he tends to be a basket case in the paddock, and while loading into the gate. If he can hold himself together, and act professional and not run his race before the gates open he will have a major shot at taking the roses. This is one seriously talented individual that can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack.


Last Race: Bluegrass Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st




3. Mubtaahij 
Dubawi- Pennegale by Pennekamp
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Michael F. de Kock
Owner: Sheikh Mohd bin Khalifa al Maktoum 

Derby Points: 100   


All to worry about here is if he can handle the ship and the surface. There is no question this colt is fit enough to win the Kentucky Derby, and there is no question about how talented he really is. This is one individual that actually has a legitimate chance at taking the roses for a foreign country. I do worry about the class he really beat, but I haven't seen the kind of acceleration he showed in the UAE Derby from any other horse prepping for the Kentucky Derby.


Last Race: UAE Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st





4. Far Right 
Notional- Zindi by Vindication 
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owner: LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. 

Derby Points: 62 

Loved the way he closed from way out of it in the Arkansas Derby. He is probably the only American I have seen that has a very good closing acceleration, and with all the money going to American Pharoah, Dortmund or Carpe Diem he should be at a nice price come derby day. He also has the pedigree to get the distance and is only going to get better as the distances get longer. 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 




5.  Itsaknockout  
Lemon Drop Kid- Stormy B by Cherokee Run 
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Racing 

Derby Points: 60  


His last work was perfect and looks like he rebounded out of the Florida Derby well. He will move forward coming from Gulfstream and that extremely quirky surface. He has the pedigree to run all day and with his limited experience he is only going to get better with more racing experience and time.

Last Race: Florida Derby
Last Race Finish: 4th





6. American Pharoah
Pioneer Ofthe Nile- Littleprincessemma by Yankeee Gentleman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC 


Derby Points: 160 

Loved his Arkansas Derby victory, but still strongly worry about his ability to get the distance. There is no question he has loads of ability and talent, and he is very obviously a special horse. I just strongly worry about his bottom side of his pedigree which leans very heavily towards one turn. His top side does have a decent amount of stamina, but that is only going to carry him so far. He also will need to show a different running style in the Kentucky Derby if he is going to have a chance at taking the roses. There is so much speed in this years Derby that anyone on or close to the lead is going to get burnt out fast. 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 


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