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Derby Six for 3/12/15

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our  by Tale Of The Cat
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 170 

Still feel that he is the cream of this crop, and has the best pedigree to get the distance though there is still a question of whether or not he will handle a mile and a quarter. With his size he cannot afford any trouble in the derby which could be his only fatal flaw. This is one seriously talented individual and as he is undefeated you cannot discount what he has achieved so far in a short, but stellar career.

Last Race: Santa Anita Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st

2. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm

Derby Points: 164 

This is another that has loads of ability. He also has the pedigree to get a mile and a quarter which makes him super dangerous come May. His pedigree does lean towards unsoundness though which is a major concern. If he stays healthy, and makes it in he has a huge shot to win the roses. Another major issue for this one is he tends to be a basket case in the paddock, and while loading into the gate. If he can hold himself together, and act professional and not run his race before the gates open he will have a major shot at taking the roses. This is one seriously talented individual that can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack.

Last Race: Bluegrass Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st

3. Mubtaahij 
Dubawi- Pennegale by Pennekamp
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Michael F. de Kock
Owner: Sheikh Mohd bin Khalifa al Maktoum 

Derby Points: 100   

All to worry about here is if he can handle the ship and the surface. There is no question this colt is fit enough to win the Kentucky Derby, and there is no question about how talented he really is. This is one individual that actually has a legitimate chance at taking the roses for a foreign country. I do worry about the class he really beat, but I haven't seen the kind of acceleration he showed in the UAE Derby from any other horse prepping for the Kentucky Derby.

Last Race: UAE Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st

4. Far Right 
Notional- Zindi by Vindication 
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owner: LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. 

Derby Points: 62 

Loved the way he closed from way out of it in the Arkansas Derby. He is probably the only American I have seen that has a very good closing acceleration, and with all the money going to American Pharoah, Dortmund or Carpe Diem he should be at a nice price come derby day. He also has the pedigree to get the distance and is only going to get better as the distances get longer. 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 

5.  Itsaknockout  
Lemon Drop Kid- Stormy B by Cherokee Run 
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Racing 

Derby Points: 60  

His last work was perfect and looks like he rebounded out of the Florida Derby well. He will move forward coming from Gulfstream and that extremely quirky surface. He has the pedigree to run all day and with his limited experience he is only going to get better with more racing experience and time.

Last Race: Florida Derby
Last Race Finish: 4th

6. American Pharoah
Pioneer Ofthe Nile- Littleprincessemma by Yankeee Gentleman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC 

Derby Points: 160 

Loved his Arkansas Derby victory, but still strongly worry about his ability to get the distance. There is no question he has loads of ability and talent, and he is very obviously a special horse. I just strongly worry about his bottom side of his pedigree which leans very heavily towards one turn. His top side does have a decent amount of stamina, but that is only going to carry him so far. He also will need to show a different running style in the Kentucky Derby if he is going to have a chance at taking the roses. There is so much speed in this years Derby that anyone on or close to the lead is going to get burnt out fast. 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 


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Breeders Cup Top 5's Results

Juvenile Fillies Turf  1. Happily finished 14th  2. Rushing Fall finished 1st Paid: $8.00 $4.60 $3.40   3. Significant Form finished 4th 4. Capla Temptress finished 7th 5. Juliet Capulet finished 11th  
Dirt Mile  1. Cupid finished 10th 2. Practical Joke finished 4th 3. Battle Of Midway finished 1st Paid: $30.40 $11.40 $6.60 4. Awesome Slew finished 3rd Paid: $7.00 5. Accelerate finished 9th 
Daily Double paid: $147.40 Juvenile Turf  1. Untamed Domain finished 2nd  Paid: $11.00 $7.00 2. Rajasinghe finished 11th 3. James Garfield finished 10th 4. Mendelssohn finished 1st  Paid: $11.60 $8.40 $5.60 5. Beckford finished 5th  
Exacta paid: $73.30  Daily Double paid: $218  Pick 3 paid: $725.40  Distaff  1. Champagne Room finished 6th 2. Abel Tasman finished 2nd  Paid: $5.40 $3.60 3. Stellar Wind finished 8th 4. Elate finished 4th 5. Forever Unbridled finished 1st  Paid: $9.40 $5.00 $3.40 
Exacta paid: $23.40  Pick 4 paid: $2,375.90  Daily Double Paid: $73.20  Pick 3 paid: $619.20
First Day Totals …

Breeders Cup Top 5's

Dirt Mile Top 5 Picks And Plays  1. #12 Goldencents   Jockey: Rafael Bejarano  Trainer: Doug O'Neil   Odds: 4-1
2. #6 Broadway Empire  Jockey: Rico W. Walcott  Trainer: Robertino Diodoro  Odds: 12-1 
3. #4 Brujo De Olleros   Jockey: Alan Garcia  Trainer: Richard C. Mettee  Odds: 8-1 
4. #10 Verrazano  Jockey: John Velazquez  Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher  Odds: 3-1 
5. #9 Centralinteligence   Jockey: Victor Espinoza  Trainer: Ronald W. Ellis  Odds: 15-1  
Juvenile Turf Top 5 Picks And Plays 
1. #2 Giovanni Boldini  Jockey: Ryan Moore Trainer: Aidan P. O'Brien  Odds: 7-2  2. #5 Bobby's Kitten  Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: Chad C. Brown  Odds: 5-2  3. #12 Shamshon (IRE)  Jockey: Richard Hughes Trainer: Richard Hannon  Odds: 12-1  4. #13 Bashart  Jockey: John Velazquez Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher   Odds: 6-1 5. #9 Wilshire Boulevard (IRE)  Jockey: William Buick Trainer: Aidan P. O'Brien   Odds: 8-1  Juvenile Top 5 Picks And Plays 
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Breeders Cup Top 5's

Juvenile Fillies Turf  1.Happily
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Odds: 9/2

2.Rushing Fall
Trainer: Chad Brown 

3.Significant Form 
Trainer: Chad Brown
Odds: 8-1

4.Capla Temptress (IRE)
Trainer: Marco Botti
Odds: 6-1

5.Juliet Capulet (IRE)
Trainer: John Gosden
Odds: 12-1  

Dirt Mile  1.Cupid
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Odds: 8-1

2.Practical Joke
Trainer: Chad Brown
Odds: 6-1

3.Battle Of Midway 
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

4.Awesome Slew
Trainer: Mark Casse

5. Accelerate  Trainer: John Sadler
Odds: 7/2

Juvenile Turf   1.Untamed Domain
Trainer: Graham Motion
Odds: 8-1

Trainer: RG Spencer

3.James Garfield 
Trainer: G. O. Scott

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien 
PP: 1

5. Beckford 
Trainer: Gordon Elliott

Distaff  1. Champagne Room
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Odds: 15-1

2. Abel Tasman
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Odds: 4-1

3. Stellar Wind