Thursday, April 16, 2015

Deeper Look Part Two

4. American Pharoah 
Pioneerof The Nile- Littleprincessemma by Yankee Gentleman

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 4
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,411,500 

Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC 

Derby Points: 160 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

Class: No question he has some serious talent, but there is a strong worry that he won't get the distance. He has no flaws except he needs to be on or right off the lead which if a quick pace develops he will have no chance. He does everything like a good horse should, but I really think he will have some issues with the distance of the Derby. 

Pedigree: He has a dosage index of 4 which does not bode well for his chances at getting a mile and a quarter. His sire did run second in the Kentucky Derby, but he was never a challenge to the winner that year who happened to be Mine That Bird. His dam side is straight sprinter speed his broodmare sire is Yankee Gentleman who was primarily a sprinter. Overall his pedigree does not really fit for a mile and a quarter horse, but stranger things have happened, and this looks like a seriously talented individual. 

Overall Opinion: Very classy colt that has loads of ability. Strongly worry about ability to handle a mile and a quarter. 

Final Decision: American Pharoah is a contender. 

5. Frosted 
Tapit- Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister  

Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 4
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $836,800

Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin
Owner: Godolphin Racing LLC  

Derby Points: 113

Last Race: Wood Memorial 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

Class: Seems like Kiaran McLaughlin finally got this colt all figured out after he put together a strong performance in the Wood. Frosted fully exposed the New York crop as a weak bunch which I fully expected him to do. He does have some physical issues as he had to have tie back surgery in between his starts in the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial which is very concerning. Seems like he's over his issues, but I don't really see this horse winning the derby as he seemed to have trouble getting by Tencenduer who is not really quite as classy as some of the other horses this year. 

Pedigree: Bred to run all day with Tapit on top and out of a Deputy Minister mare he should be able to handle the distance no problem. He has a strong dosage index of 2.75 which bodes well for his chances at getting the distance. 

Overall Opinion: Frosted is a nice colt, but worry he may not be as classy as some of the others in here. 

Final Decision: Frosted is a pretender. 

6. Mubtaahij 
Dubawi- Pennegale by Pennekamp 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 4
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,461,332

Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Michael F. de Kock
Owner: Sheikh Mohd bin Khalifa al Maktoum 

Derby Points: 100 

Last Race: UAE Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

Class: We have no clue how good this colt is as his competition was totally questionable in the UAE Derby. All we do know is that this colt seems to be very very talented, and has a very explosive turn of foot. He also will be incredibly fit on Derby day as he has already run farther than every horse in the Derby field. Only question is will he handle the ship over. 

Pedigree: Has a dosage index of 1 which means he will absolutely run all day. No worries about distance with this one. 

Overall Opinion: Very serious colt, and is probably the best horse that has ever come over from the UAE Derby. 

Final Decision: Mubtaahij is a contender.  

Tune in next time as I take a deeper look into Materiality, El Kabeir, and Upstart. 

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