Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Deeper Look Part Five

13. Danzig Moon 
Malibu Moon- Leaveminthedust by Danzig

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 1
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $251,120

Connections: 
Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Owner: John C. Oxley

Derby Points: 45 

Last Race: Bluegrass Stakes
Last Race Finish: 2nd


Class: Steadily improving colt that is going to get better with more racing experience. He has a lot of ability, but he probably isn't quite ready for the type of competition he will be facing Saturday. He will get there with time, but this is one who is probably a cut below some of the top horses in here.

Pedigree: His sire has sired a Derby winner in Orb, and will probably sire another one before his stallion career is over. That being said I don't think Danzig Moon will be that horse. His pedigree does have some distance elements to it, but has a relatively high dosage index of 3.44, and from what I visually see from this colt I don't think he really wants to go this far.

Overall Opinion: Nice colt that's on the improve, but fear he may have distance limitations, and he may not be quite ready for this type of competition.

Final Decision: Danzig Moon is a pretender.



14. War Story 
Northern Afleet- Belle Watling by Pulpit

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $243,600 

Connections: 
Jockey: Joseph Talamo
Trainer: Thomas M. Amoss
Owner: Loooch Racing Stables, Inc., Ellis, Glenn K. and Dunn, Christopher T. 

Derby Points: 44 

Last Race: Louisiana Derby 
Last Race Finish: 3rd 


Class: Another that has some ability, but another that is probably a cut below the others in here though he may have a shot at running in the top five if he gets the right trip and some others run poor races. He will get better with time, and proper management. Right now I can't see him winning the Kentucky Derby, and think his best chance will be in the later two legs of the Triple Crown. 

Pedigree: His dosage index is relatively low at a 2.73, but his sire and broodmare sire don't really produce horses that want to run farther than six furlongs so though it may seem like a stamina pedigree it really is not. 

Overall Opinion: Solid deep closer, but fear he may have issues getting the distance. 

Final Decision: War Story is a pretender. 


15. Tencendur 
Warrior's Reward- Still Secret by Hennessy 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 1
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $253,500

Connections: 
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Trainer: George Weaver
Owner: Philip S. Birsh 

Derby Points: 41 

Last Race: Wood Memorial 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 



Class: Got everything his own way last out was allowed to set slow fractions, and he still couldn't hold onto the lead. Granted Frosted is a nice colt, but Tencendur was all out to try and win, and really didn't seem to handle the distance one bit. He will probably be better suited to a mile, and shorter in the future. 

Pedigree: He has a dosage index of a flat 3 which doesn't help. His sire and broodmare sire tend to produce horses that want to run shorter, and visually he doesn't look like a horse that wants to run this long. 

Overall Opinion: Classy for a New York bred, but doesn't have the pedigree power or the ability to get the distance. 

Final Decision: Tencendur is a pretender.  


16. Stanford 
Malibu Moon- Rosy Humor by Distorted Humor 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $199,400 

Connections: 
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Stonestreet Stables LLC, Magnier, M., Tabor, M. and Smith, D. 

Derby Points: 40 

Last Race: Louisiana Derby 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 

Class: Has ability, but was not impressed with his two efforts at a mile and eighth. He was able to control the pace last out and set moderate fractions and still was not able to hold on which does not bode well for him here.

Pedigree: He is bred to get the distance, but visually it looks like he doesn't want any part of it. His sire and broodmare sire have both produce Derby winners, but visually that were much better horses than Stanford is. He has a dosage index of a 3.44 which strongly leans towards shorter distances. 

Overall Opinion: Nice colt, but seems to be biting off more than he can chew here. 

Final Decision: Stanford is a pretender. 


17. Mr. Z 
Malibu Moon- Stormy Bear by Storm Cat 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 12
Firsts: 1
Seconds: 4
Thirds: 4
Earnings: $652,226 

Connections: 
Jockey: Ramon A. Vazquez
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC 

Derby Points: 34 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 3rd 


Class: You certainly can't say this colt doesn't try, he's one of the toughest horses to get by when he wants to be, and gave Dortmund a run for his money at the end of his two year old year. This is one colt who has no quit in him. If he could revert back to his old style of coming of the pace he actually would have a huge chance in here, but I just don't see him winning if he is on the pace.  

Pedigree: Has a flat dosage index of 3. His sire has produced a Derby winner before in Orb, but Mr.Z probably isn't on the same level as Orb was at this time of year. He could get the distance as both his broodmare sire and sire both have average offspring winning distances of 7.05 which does bode well for his chances at getting the distance. Visually though the only chance he has at getting the distance is off the pace. 

Overall Opinion: Classy hard trying colt, but needs to revert back to his old style to have a shot at getting the distance in here. 

Final Decision: Mr. Z is a pretender. 


18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 
Street Sense- Winner by Horse Chestnut 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $793,850 

Connections: 
Jockey: Santiago Gonzalez
Trainer: James M. Cassidy
Owner: DP Racing, LLC 

Derby Points: 30 

Last Race: Bluegrass Stakes 
Last Race Finish: 3rd 

Class: Has ability and he gets the distance could be a threat at a nice price. This being his third start of the lay off I expect to see some huge improvement from this colt. He will probably need to be mid pack in here to have a serious chance as there is to much speed to press the pace. 

Pedigree: His sire won the Kentucky Derby, but the majority of his offspring seem to be better suited to shorter distances so far. His broodmare sire was a very talented individual, but hasn't been able to produce anything special. His dosage index is a strong 2.11 which is one of the lower ones in this field. His sire and broodmare sire's average winning distance is above seven furlongs which also bodes well for his chances at getting the distance. 

Overall Opinion: Classy individual that is going to improve third off the layoff, but probably wont hit his peak till the Preakness. 

Final Decision: Ocho Ocho Ocho is a Contender. 


19. Bolo 
Temple City- Aspen Mountain by Chief Seattle 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $249,700

Connections: 
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Carla Gaines
Owner: Golden Pegasus Racing, Inc. and Mack, Earle I. 

Derby Points: 30 

Last Race: Santa Anita Derby 
Last Race Finish: 3rd 


Class: Probably better suited to turf, but the Churchill dirt tends to play kindly to grass horses so his closing charge could be more effective over this strip. Was wide throughout the Santa Anita Derby and still managed to make a strong run. Loads of ability, has a huge chance here, but only because the surface plays kindly to his type. 

Pedigree: Has a flat dosage index of 2 which is one of the lower ones in this field. Visually looks like he wants the distance. His sire was primarily a marathoner which bodes well for his chances at this distance. His broodmare sire is a little more speed oriented which doesn't help, but with his sire being such a distance oriented horse that also tends to produce distance oriented horses I don't think the distance is going to be an issue. 

Overall Opinion: May be better suited to grass, but deserves a huge look in here at a price. 

Final Decision: Bolo is a contender. 


20. Keen Ice
Curlin- Medomak by Awesome Again

Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 1
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $160,395

Connections: 
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing 

Derby Points: 22 

Last Race: Louisiana Derby 
Last Race Finish: 4th 

Class: Many feel this one is too slow, but what I see is a horse that is crying for a mile and a quarter. This one could very easily pull a Giacomo, and spoil the whole party if he gets a clean trip. He will be a huge price Derby day which only adds to the reasons to like him. Add in the fact that he has been thriving since he got to Churchill Downs, and you have a horse with a huge shot. Not to mention the fact that his rider in the Derby will be Kent Desormeaux who knows a few things about how to win the Derby and you have yourself a prime candidate to steal the roses. 

Pedigree: His sire was one of the greatest horses of modern times, and could run all day and on any surface. His broodmare sire won the Breeders Cup Classic and was another who could run all day. He has a dosage index of 2.73, but his sire and broodmare sire tend to produce individuals that want to run all day. 

Overall Opinion: Deep closer with a monster kick. Has the pedigree to get the distance, and the right connections to get him to the winners circle on Saturday. 

Final Decision: Keen Ice is a contender. 




Contender and Pretender Shake Out 


Contenders: (In Order of most preference) 

1. Dortmund 

2. Keen Ice
 
3. Mubtaahij 

4. Far Right 

5. Itsaknockout 

6. American Pharoah 

7. Carpe Diem 

8. Materiality 

9. Bolo 

10. Ocho Ocho Ocho 


Pretenders: (In Order of most preference) 

1. International Star 

2. Frosted 

3. Mr.Z 

4. Upstart 

5. Firing Line 

6. El Kabeir 

7. Danzig Moon 

8. War Story 

9. Stanford 

10. Tencendur 

Tune in next time when I review the winners and losers of the post draw! 

No comments:

Post a Comment