Sunday, February 22, 2015

Derby Six for 2/22/15

1. Far From Over 
Blame- Alchemist by A P Indy
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher


Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, LLP 

Derby Points: 10 

Very impressed with his effort in the Withers Stakes. After completely losing almost all chance at the break and flying home to catch a pretty good colt in El Kabeir this is one everyone must keep an eye on. He is one of the few horses really bred for the Triple Crown with Blame on top and being out of an A.P. Indy mare this colt will undoubtedly run all day. He is still a little green, but that's only going to fix itself with time. To do what he did in only his second start is unheard of, and that is why he takes the top spot on my Derby six. 


Last Race: Withers Stakes  
Last Race Finish: 1st 







2. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat 
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 20 


What an amazing amount of heart this big colt has, after being passed in the stretch he comes back and wins by a neck that is something you cannot ignore. Heart is one of the most important qualities moving forward on the Triple Crown trail and this horse has it in boatloads. His pedigree is not exactly huge on stamina, but his sire Big Brown was able to win the Kentucky Derby and his broodmare sire Tale of the Cat was a mile and an eighth horse, so maybe that mix will enable him to go farther. He's a very tall young colt and might still be growing into himself. he seems to take a long while to get going which in the Derby could be a negative.

Last Race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st






3. Keen Ice 
Curlin- Medomak by Awesome Again
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Derby Points: 12 


Super impressive run in the Risen Star, and with a little more ground this colt will only get better. He needs a long stretch and he will get that at Churchill Downs he is only going to get better with time and distance. Being by Curling out of an Awesome Again mare this colt is literally crying for a mile and a quarter. He could be a major long shot in the Kentucky Derby, but he needs to earn the points next out in the Louisiana Derby which means he must run first or second to even make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby. If he gets the points this colt could be a real live long shot in the Kentucky Derby.

Last Race: Risen Star Stakes
Last Race Finish: 3rd

  





4. Ocean Knight 
Curlin- Ocean Goddess by Stormy Atlantic
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: Stonestreet Stables


Derby Points: 0 

He's so professional for a horse that has only made two career starts, and that will be a huge help moving forward. He seems to be the type of horse that nothing phases him, he has that grinder type style that can be a big positive in the Derby. Only worry is if he will get the distance his bottom side is a little speed oriented, but with Curlin on top it might even out. He's a very talented and professional racehorse, and whoever decides to show up for the Tampa Bay Derby better look out because this colt is the real deal.

Last Race: Sam F. Davis Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st






5. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm


Derby Points: 14

Has loads of ability and is only going to get better going longer. I do worry a little about his bottom side as it isn't exactly stamina laden, but with Giants Causeway on top it shouldn't be to much of an issue at a mile and a quarter. He has such an amazing amount of ability and has a great coverage of ground with his stride. The Breeders Cup Juvenile effort is far better than it seems as he was running into a speed bias, and was much further back than he had ever been before in his career. He has been working forwardly and should return in the Tampa Bay Derby if he stay healthy.

Last Race: Breeders Cup Juvenile
Last Race Finish: 2nd





6. Ocho Ocho Ocho
Street Sense- Winner by Horse Chestnut (SAF)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: James Cassidy
Owner: DP Racing


Derby Points: 10

Nothing wrong with an undefeated horse especially one that shows a lot of heart. He is another that will get better with time and with his undefeated record he's obviously got a lot of ability. He is also very versatile and has a very good closing kick which well help him reel in the several speedy colts in this crop. He posted one work the 29th of January which was a nice handy breeze so looks like he's just starting to get going again. His next start will probably be the San Felipe that's when we will figure out how for real this horse is. His pedigree is a lot more stamina than it first appears and with his versatile style this one could be a real threat come May.

Last Race: Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st






Sunday, February 8, 2015

Derby Six for 2/8/15

1. Far From Over 
Blame- Alchemist by A P Indy
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, LLP

Derby Points: 10 

Very impressed with his effort in the Withers Stakes. After completely losing almost all chance at the break and flying home to catch a pretty good colt in El Kabeir this is one everyone must keep an eye on. He is one of the few horses really bred for the Triple Crown with Blame on top and being out of an A.P. Indy mare this colt will undoubtedly run all day. He is still a little green, but that's only going to fix itself with time. To do what he did in only his second start is unheard of, and that is why he takes the top spot on my Derby six.

Last Race: Withers Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st






2. Texas Red 
Afleet Alex- Ramatuelle (CHI) by Jeune Homme
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Owner: Brehm, Erich, Detmar, Wayne, Michaels, Lee, Desormeaux, J. Keith et al.

Derby Points:12 

Pointed towards the Risen Star next which should be the perfect spot for him with Fairgrounds long stretch he should be able to mow them down and pull out a win. He's a very explosive horse and his last out was just what he needed. He's only going to get better as the year goes on, and I certainly would not be surprised if we see this one in the Winners Circle come May. 

Last Race: San Vicente Stakes 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 







3. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat 
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 20 

What an amazing amount of heart this big colt has, after being passed in the stretch he comes back and wins by a neck that is something you cannot ignore. Heart is one of the most important qualities moving forward on the Triple Crown trail and this horse has it in boatloads. His pedigree is not exactly huge on stamina, but his sire Big Brown was able to win the Kentucky Derby and his broodmare sire Tale of the Cat was a mile and an eighth horse, so maybe that mix will enable him to go farther. He's a very tall young colt and might still be growing into himself. he seems to take a long while to get going which in the Derby could be a negative.

Last Race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st

 






4.Ocean Knight 
Curlin- Ocean Goddess by Stormy Atlantic
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: Stonestreet Stables


Derby Points: 0 

He's so professional for a horse that has only made two career starts, and that will be a huge help moving forward. He seems to be the type of horse that nothing phases him, he has that grinder type style that can be a big positive in the Derby. Only worry is if he will get the distance his bottom side is a little speed oriented, but with Curlin on top it might even out. He's a very talented and professional racehorse, and whoever decides to show up for the Tampa Bay Derby better look out because this colt is the real deal.

Last Race: Sam F. Davis Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st







5. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm


Derby Points: 14

Has loads of ability and is only going to get better going longer. I do worry a little about his bottom side as it isn't exactly stamina laden, but with Giants Causeway on top it shouldn't be to much of an issue at a mile and a quarter. He has such an amazing amount of ability and has a great coverage of ground with his stride. The Breeders Cup Juvenile effort is far better than it seems as he was running into a speed bias, and was much further back than he had ever been before in his career. He has been working forwardly and should return in the Fountain of Youth Stakes if he stay healthy.

Last Race: Breeders Cup Juvenile
Last Race Finish: 2nd





6. Ocho Ocho Ocho
Street Sense- Winner by Horse Chestnut (SAF)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: James Cassidy
Owner: DP Racing


Derby Points: 10

Nothing wrong with an undefeated horse especially one that shows a lot of heart. He is another that will get better with time and with his undefeated record he's obviously got a lot of ability. He is also very versatile and has a very good closing kick which well help him reel in the several speedy colts in this crop. He posted one work the 29th of January which was a nice handy breeze so looks like he's just starting to get going again. His next start will probably be the San Felipe that's when we will figure out how for real this horse is. His pedigree is a lot more stamina than it first appears and with his versatile style this one could be a real threat come May.

Last Race: Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st



Monday, February 2, 2015

Derby Six for 2/2/15

1. Texas Red 
Afleet Alex- Ramatuelle (CHI) by Jeune Homme
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Owner: Brehm, Erich, Detmar, Wayne, Michaels, Lee, Desormeaux, J. Keith et al.

Derby Points:12 

Made his three year old debut Sunday, and he got exactly what he needed out of the effort. Most will think it wasn't a great effort, but he was only about 90% ready for the race, and this is one who is meant for longer distances. He showed a lot in defeat and only looked like he started running the last quarter of a mile. He didn't see the Baffert horse coming at him towards the wire and he looked like he kicked back in past the wire. He's one of the most talented Breeders Cup Juvenile winners I've seen and hes one that has the most potential to get the Derby distance. I'll even go as far to say he won't have an issue with the Belmont distance either.

Last Race: San Vicente Stakes

Link: http://youtu.be/8YDVayR2epk

Last Race Finish: 2nd





2. Ocean Knight 
Curlin- Ocean Goddess by Stormy Atlantic
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: Stonestreet Stables 

Derby Points: 0 

Made his three year old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last Saturday, and was a lot more professional than you would expect him to be at this stage in his career. He has made two starts now and has two wins hard to argue with perfection. I moved him up a spot due to how well he handled the transition from two to three. For how little experience he has he runs like a seasoned professional and that makes him very dangerous at this point in time. Look to see him run next in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

Last Race: Sam F. Davis Stakes 

Link: http://youtu.be/5z5rnDxIwI8 

Last Race Finish 1st 




3. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm 


Derby Points: 14 

Has loads of ability and is only going to get better going longer. I do worry a little about his bottom side as it isn't exactly stamina laden, but with Giants Causeway on top it shouldn't be to much of an issue at a mile and a quarter. He has such an amazing amount of ability and has a great coverage of ground with his stride. The Breeders Cup Juvenile effort is far better than it seems as he was running into a speed bias, and was much further back than he had ever been before in his career. He has been working forwardly and should return in the Fountain of Youth Stakes if he stay healthy. 

Last Race: Breeders Cup Juvenile 

Link: http://youtu.be/UjBwlun6R1E 

Last Race Finish: 2nd 




4. Mr.Z 
Malibu Moon- Stormy Bear by Storm Cat
Jockey: John Court
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Zayat Stables
 
Derby Points: 12 

Though he took a complete right turn in the Smarty Jones I will keep him at the number four spot. He's a very talented colt and it looks like it was a just a tooth issue that caused him to make such a drastic and uncharacteristic move to the outside. He's one that I see getting better if he is taken off the pace and made to settle. He has a lot of heart and guts I just wish they would reverse him back to coming from off the pace like he did in the Claibourne Breeders Futurity. He's a gutsy colt and will run much better next out which looks like it's going to be the Rebel Stakes. 

Last Race: Smarty Jones Stakes 

Link: http://youtu.be/FJyplwPKr2A 

Last Race Finish: 2nd 



5. Ocho Ocho Ocho 
Street Sense- Winner by Horse Chestnut (SAF)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: James Cassidy
Owner: DP Racing 

Derby Points: 10 


Nothing wrong with an undefeated horse especially one that shows a lot of heart. He is another that will get better with time and with his undefeated record he's obviously got a lot of ability. He is also very versatile and has a very good closing kick which well help him reel in the several speedy colts in this crop. He posted one work the 29th of January which was a nice handy breeze so looks like he's just starting to get going again. His next start will probably be the San Felipe that's when we will figure out how for real this horse is. His pedigree is a lot more stamina than it first appears and with his versatile style this one could be a real threat come May. 

Last Race: Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes 

Link: http://youtu.be/M5JwX7Si1tI 

Last Race Finish: 1st 


6. Upstart 
Flatter- Party Silks by Touch Gold 
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Trainer: Richard A. Violette, Jr.
Owner: Ralph M. Evans 

Derby Points: 16 

Ran lights out in the Holy Bull Stakes a few weeks ago. He has the pedigree to run all day with a Belmont Stakes winner on bottom, and a horse that has produced a couple mile and a quarter horses including horses like Flat Out. This one certainly blossomed over the couple months he had off. He seems to have grown into himself and looks like a more serious racehorse than I originally thought he was going to be. His next out will most likely be the Fountain of Youth with a match up against Carpe Diem that will be his real acid test. 

Last Race: Holy Bull Stakes 

Link: http://youtu.be/0ChAxviba5A 

Last Race Finish: 1st