Monday, April 20, 2015

Deeper Look Part Four

10. Far Right 
Notional - Zindi by Vindication

Career Statistics:
Starts: 9
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $625,766

Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owner: LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. 

Derby Points: 62 

Last Race: Arkansas Derby 
Last Race Finish: 2nd 

Class: Despite the drubbing he received last out courtesy of American Pharoah I strongly feel this one actually may have a better chance at taking the roses than American Pharoah does. Far Right posses one of the best closing kicks of this crop and will really appreciate the added distance of the Derby. You have to remember in the Arkansas Derby he was coming off a short lay off with only two works so, he was definitely not 100% cranked for the Arkansas Derby. Strongly expect him to move forward off that effort, and you could very possibly get some good odds on him on Derby day. 

Pedigree: He is bred to run all day, and with his closing style I have no doubts that he will handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby. He has a strong dosage index of 1.50 so there really is no question he will handle the distance. 

Overall Opinion: Strong closing kick is a very good asset in the Derby and this colt has it in spades this is one to look out for on Derby day. 

Final Decision: Far Right is a contender 

11. Itsaknockout 
Lemon Drop Kid- Stormy B by Cherokee Run 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 4
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $335,360

Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Racing 

Derby Points: 60 

Last Race: Florida Derby 
Last Race Finish: 4th 

Class: Threw a clunker last out, but I think that he just didn't really seem to be handling the track that day. He is a classy individual and there's no telling what he can do on a track he actually likes. I like what I saw from him in the Fountain of Youth how he refused to give up against Upstart. He seems like a horse that wants to run all day, also love the fact that he can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack that gives him a strong advantage on Derby day. 

Pedigree: His sire Lemon Drop Kid was a Belmont winner and tends to produce horses that want to go long. His broodmare sire Cherokee Run was primarily a sprinter, but has produced some horses that like to go long. Itsaknockout also has a strong dosage index of 1.29 which gives off the impression that he would want to run all day. 

Overall Opinion: Itsaknockout has a very versatile style that will really make him dangerous in the Derby, and his pedigree suggests that he wants to run all day. 

Final Decision: Itsaknockout is a contender. 

12. Firing Line 
Line Of David- Sister Girl Blues by Hold For Gold 

Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $574,800

Jockey: Gary L. Stevens
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Owner: Arnold Zetcher LLC 

Derby Points: 58 

Last Race: Sunland Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

Class: He is talented, but this is one colt I strongly feel does not want the Derby distance. He got what he needed out of his last race which was a confidence builder and a chance to get away from Dortmund. He runs like a good horse should, but feel he is better suited to shorter races. He might be a good Dirt Mile contender come Breeders Cup time. 

Pedigree: His pedigree really leans toward six furlongs and shorter so he has already out ran his pedigree. He also has a dosage index of a flat 3 which does not bode well for his chances at the Derby distance. 

Overall Opinion: Talented colt, but will most likely have distance limitations moving forward. 

Final Decision: Firing Line is a pretender. 

Tune in next time as I review Danzig Moon, War Story, and Tencendur!  

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