Saturday, November 23, 2013

The First Kentucky Derby Top Six Of The Trail

The First Top Six of the Derby Trail 


This will be the first of my weekly postings of my top six on the Kentucky Derby trail I will be posting them every Saturday, Sunday, or Monday depending on when the major preps have been run. I will give in depth analysis of each of the six and my opinions on them as well along with all of that a link to a video of their last race will be included. I will be doing this every week until Kentucky Derby weekend when I will give you my pretenders and contenders for the Kentucky Derby. So lets get started shall we? 

1. Honor Code 
A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat by Storm Cat 
Jockey:Javier Castellano
Trainer:Claude R. McGaughey III
Owner:Lane's End Racing and Dell Ridge Farm LLC
Breeder:Dell Ridge Farm, LLC
 

2013 Statistics:

  • Starts: 2
  • Firsts: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 0
  • Earnings: $148,000
  • Earnings Per Start: $74,000 

Honor Code is a strapping son of A.P Indy which means he will have no problem with the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. He has a great team behind him as well his trainer Shug McGaughey just won the Kentucky Derby this year with Orb and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes again with this colt. A few things this colt needs to get sorted out is his poor breaking ability if he breaks poorly in the Derby its the kiss of death, he needs to learn to sit closer to the pace and still make that devastating rush that he showed in his debut. Even with all of that I will still say this is one of the most impressive two year olds I have seen in awhile and he is one that as the distances get longer he is only going to get better. I like how Shug decided to bypass the Breeders Cup with this one in favor of the mile and an eighth Remsen Stakes he may have his hands full though with a very talented colt named Cairo Prince but more on him later. His last race he ran a very nice second to Havana in the Champagne Stakes and Havana showed he is no slouch either in the Juvenile running a game second. I feel though that Honor Code definitely wants to go far where as Havana might be better suited to shorter sprints.  

Race Shown: 2013 Champagne Stakes 
Finish: 2nd



2. New Year's Day
Street Cry (IRE)- Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union

Jockey:Martin Garcia
Trainer:Bob Baffert
Owner:West, Gary and Mary
Breeder:Clearsky Farms

2013 Statistics:

  • Starts: 3
  • Firsts: 2
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Earnings: $1,154,000
  • Earnings Per Start: $384,667

New Year's Day reminds me a lot of Street Sense he's by Street Cry like Street Sense was he seems to have the same explosive style Street Sense had and on top of it all they both won the Breeders Cup Juvenile while they were just starting to hit their best form. New Year's Day is another that will get better as the distances get longer his mother was a multiple graded stakes winner she grabbed wins in the Davona Dale and Bonnie Miss Stakes in 2009. New Year's Day could be the next Breeders Cup Juvenile winner to take the Kentucky Derby and with Bob Baffert as his trainer you know he will be ready come the First Saturday in May.  

Race Shown: 2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile 
Finish: 1st 
 


3. Shared Belief  
Candy Ride (ARG)- Common Hope by Storm Cat 
Breeder:Pam and Martin Wygod

2013 Statistics:

  • Starts: 2
  • Firsts: 2
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 0
  • Earnings: $76,200
  • Earnings Per Start: $38,100 

Shared Belief freaked in his last start the Hollywood Prevue Stakes at Hollywood Park and I feel this is another that will like added distance only question mark is if he will handle the dirt, many Candy Ride's don't fare as well on the dirt as they do on synthetics and turf. That being said Storm Cat on the bottom should help him handle the dirt but he needs to answer that question soon or expect him to drop out of my top six. His next start sounds like it's going to be the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park so I don't expect him to answer the dirt question until next year. 

Race Link: http://youtu.be/QIkKG3Z3pRU 
Race Shown: 2013 Hollywood Prevue Stakes 
FInish: 1st 



4. Green Mask 
Mizzen Mast- Bonsai Beauty by Forestry 
Jockey:Kent J. Desormeaux
Trainer:Wesley A. Ward
Owner:Abdullah Saeed Almaddah
Breeder:D. J. Stable, LLC

2013 Statistics:

  • Starts: 1
  • Firsts: 1
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 0
  • Earnings: $33,600
  • Earnings Per Start: $33,600 

Green Mask freaked in his first start at Keeneland and had Kent Desormeaux saying this colt was his next Big Brown. I think he ran huge but he is another that will need to answer the dirt question he also may not want a mile and quarter like many Forestry's before him. If he can go the distance and he likes the dirt expect this one to skyrocket up my list his next race in the Real Quiet Stakes on November 23rd should run well enough to stay on this list. 
NO VIDEO AVAILABLE 


5. Cairo Prince 
Pioneer Ofthe Nile- Holy Bubbette by Holy Bull 
Jockey:Luis Saez
Trainer:Kiaran P. McLaughlin
Owner:Namcook Stables, Braverman, Paul, Clarke, Harvey A. and Robertson III, W. Craig
Breeder:Richard L. Elam & Katherine H. Elam 

2013 Statistics:

  • Starts: 2
  • Firsts: 2
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 0
  • Earnings: $192,000
  • Earnings Per Start: $96,000

Cairo Prince is as explosive as they come only question is if that crazy explosive move he makes everytime he hits the top of the stretch is a sign that maybe just maybe he doesn't want to go that far. I don't feel like this one has distance limitations based on his pedigree alone but his running style definitely worries me. He can't expect to make that huge sweeping move and still be able to hold of horses like Honor Code or New Year's Day. His next race is going to be the Remsen Stakes where he will meet up with Honor Code then we may find out just exactly who the real Cairo Prince is. 

Race Shown: 2013 Nashua Stakes 
Finish: 1st 
 

6. Kobe's Back 
Flatter- Well by Well Decorated 
Breeder:Joanne R. Mummert 

2013 Statistics:

  • Starts: 2
  • Firsts: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 0
  • Earnings: $80,000
  • Earnings Per Start: $40,000

Kobe's Back has run in nothing but Stakes races and has shown he has loads of untapped talent being by Flatter this one if going to get better as the distances get longer and as he gets older I fully expect this one to be peaking come Kentucky Derby day so don't be surprised if he doesn't really impress that much along the Kentucky Derby Trail but expect him to run huge on Derby day. He ran a tough second to Shared Belief last out in the Hollywood Prevue but he had a long time off before that race so I feel he needed the race and don't be surprised if he comes rolling home in the CashCall Futurity and avenges his defeat. 


Race Shown: 2013 Willard Proctor Memorial 
Finish: 1st 



So that was our first Derby Top six see ya next week!