Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Derby Six for April 7th 2015

1. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat 
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 170 

Very impressed with his victory in the Santa Anita Derby this weekend. He fought off all challenges, and managed to have another gear after running a 22 opening quarter not many horses can do that at a mile and an eighth. That was just the performance I was looking for from this horse. He is starting to remind me a lot of his sire except for the fact that his sire had an incredibly explosive turn of foot. Dortmund doesn't quite have that acceleration, but he does have quite the high cruising speed. Still feel he is heads and shoulders above everyone else in this crop. Only question is can he get a mile and a quarter, but many of the horses in this crop look to have the same question to answer.

Last Race: Santa Anita Derby
Last Race Finish: 1st

2. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm 

Derby Points: 164 

Loved what I saw from him in the Bluegrass, and love the fact that he doesn't need to lead. He's the type of horse that no matter what you throw at him he is going to run his race. He's such a smooth mover and looks like he will love every part of a mile and a quarter. I do worry about what he beat in the Bluegrass as Ocho Ocho Ocho was no match for Dortmund in the San Felipe. Other concerns for this colt though are the fact that his pedigree has a tendency to lean towards unsoundness which makes me worry if he can stay sound for the entirety of the Triple Crown Trail. 

Last Race: Bluegrass Stakes 
Last Race Finish: 1st 


3. Mubtaahij 
Dubawi- Pennegale by Pennekamp
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Michael F. de Kock
Owner: Sheikh Mohd bin Khalifa al Maktoum 

Derby Points: 100  

Loved his UAE Derby and I am not afraid to admit it. This colt could very well be a serious threat to the derby picture. Though the quality of opponents he's faced is questionable he did make them look like cheap claimers which makes me believe this colt is very talented.  The turn of foot he showed was the most explosive I have seen from this three year old crop. Only worry here is how he will handle the ship over, and if he can handle the Churchill Downs dirt which may be quite different from the Meydan dirt. 

Last Race: UAE Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

4. Materiality 
Afleet Alex- Wildwood Flower by Langfuhr 
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Alto Racing, LLC 

Derby Points: 100   

Loved his Florida Derby victory and think he is a very serious threat to the Apollo curse. He has jumped through so many hoops in such a short amount of time that it makes me believe he is a very special individual. He's only going to get better with more racing and experience. He could very well be a special special talent. 

Last Race: Florida Derby 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

5. Far Right 
Notional- Zindi by Vindication 
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Owner: LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. 

Derby Points: 22 

I think this colt is only going to get better as the distances get longer and strongly feel he is going to give American Pharoah a run for his money this Saturday. I am a little concerned that he has had only three works since his last start which was the Southwest Stakes. There might be something a miss or I might be reading to far into things. In any case this colt has major ability now it's just time for him to showcase just how good he may be. 

Last Race: Southwest Stakes 
Last Race Finish: 1st 

6. Itsaknockout  
Lemon Drop Kid- Stormy B by Cherokee Run 
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Racing 

Derby Points: 60 

The thinking here is that he didn't run his "A" race in the Florida Derby, and that maybe he didn't handle the surface which is highly likely. This colt is another that will only get better with more races. He is also another that is only going to get better as the distances get longer. With such a hot pace developing for this years derby field this colt could very well be picking up the pieces late and rolling home at a decent price. 

Last Race: Florida Derby 
Last Race Finish: 4th 

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