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Derby Six for 4/20/18

1. Good Magic 
Curlin- Glinda The Good by Hard Spun
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: eFive Racing Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables LLC

Career Stats:
Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $1,855,000

Derby Points: 134 

Analysis:

Good Magic is the type of horse that needs racing to get fit and he proved that in spades in the Bluegrass. Many are doubting the final time in the Bluegrass but if you watch closely his ears were flipping every which way and he wasn't entirely focused on the task at hand in other words there is plenty left in the tank. I'm not as concerned with his final time in the Bluegrass as he ran fast enough in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in the later stages of the race to almost guarantee he's going to love the Derby distance. Chad Brown is one of the greatest trainers in the game right now and he knows how to get a horse to peak on the right day, and he's always held this colt in high regard. I have no doubt or qualms that he has the ability to win the Kentucky Derby even in this extremely talented bunch of three year olds.

 



2. Justify 
Scat Daddy- Stage Magic by Ghostzapper
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, Starlight Racing, and Winstar Farm

Career Stats:
Starts: 3
Wins:3
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $666,000

Derby Points: 100 

Analysis:

He did exactly what he needed to do in the Santa Anita Derby, but that being said he had absolutely everything his own way. He's going to have a much tougher task in the Derby especially if he draws a terrible post. He's never faced kickback before he's never been in an actual dog fight so there's no guarantee he wont spit the bit and quit if another horse looks him in the eye. I'm also slightly concerned that he hasn't had a work since his win in the Santa Anita Derby so fingers crossed everything is alright in his corner. Now there is no denying he's a freakish talent that's only going to get better as the year goes on, but I think the Derby at this stage in his young career might be biting off more than he can chew. The only reason he is ranked this high is because I 100% trust Bob Baffert's opinion and if Baffert thinks this horse can win the Derby than everyone better listen. It also would be fitting for a Baffert horse to finally be the one to break the Apollo curse as he's all about breaking records when it comes to the Triple Crown races example 1 American Pharoah. 




3. Audible
Into Mischief- Blue Devil Bel by Gilded Time
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International LTD. & SF Racing LLC


Career Stats:
Starts: 5
Wins: 4
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $882,920

Derby Points: 110  

Analysis:
Another who answered every question that needed to be answered in his final prep this in my humble opinion is Pletcher's best Derby chance this year, that's right I think he's more gifted than Magnum Moon. We know exactly how good this horse is and yes he may not be the best work horse in the morning but he sure as heck can run in the afternoon and that's all that really matters. Many knock his pedigree, but he's run high late pace figures and that is a very good indicator of a horse who wants to run long. Horses bred on the same cross as him have an average winning distance of 7.43 which is a very good indicator that he will indeed want to run longer.

 



4. Mendelssohn 
Scat Daddy- Leslie's Lady by Tricky Creek
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: Aidan O' Brien
Owner: Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith

Career Stats:
Starts: 7
Wins: 4
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,961,137

Derby Points: 100 

Analysis:

His UAE Derby was simply sensational. The reason he's only number 4 on my list is because there are a lot of things working against him like the trip from overseas and that pesky fact that no UAE Derby winner has ever finished better than 5th in the Kentucky Derby. One major thing going for him though is Aidan O'Brien who actually trained the best finisher from the UAE Derby in Master Of Hounds. The other major thing going for him is his pedigree this horse is bred all around to love running on the dirt and he definitely showed that in the UAE Derby. Another concern I have for him is that the pace in this years Derby is shaping up to be quite hot so he's going to have to take back which he's shown he can do, but he's another that's never faced kickback and he's going to have a lot of it in the Derby which is a huge concern.




5. Vino Rosso
Curlin- Mythical Bride by Street Cry
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable

Career Stats:
Starts: 5
Wins: 3
Seconds: 0
Thirds:1
Earnings: $620,500

Derby Points: 107 

Analysis:

I've always had faith in this colt from the first time I saw him run at Tampa I took him off my Derby Six in March simply because he totally backpedaled in the Tampa Bay Derby he's firmly regained his spot on my Derby Six now. He showed that he can actually sustain a run in the Wood Memorial which is exactly what I needed to see from him. He also showed he's incredibly resilient as well when he got into that bumping match with Enticed he'll need every ounce of that in the Derby. He's a gifted athlete and he's only going to get better from here he may not win the Derby, but he's definitely one you'll be hearing from down the road. 




6. Magnum Moon 
Malibu Moon- Dazzling Song by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Lawana and Robert Low

Career Stats:
Starts: 4
Wins: 4
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,177,800

Derby Points: 150 

Analysis:

I hate having 3 Pletcher horses in my Derby six, but I don't really have a choice they're all to good this year. He made me a believer in his comet status in the Arkansas Derby, but he's still a little green which concerns me a touch. He's not going to have room for error in the Derby this year as every single one of these horses is a massive talent. That being said he still is an exceptional individual and he's bred to love the Derby distance. I don't entirely trust Pletcher to win the Derby but he definitely knows how to get them here and this year was no exception this is probably the strongest hand he's ever held going into the Kentucky Derby.


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