Sunday, February 22, 2015

Derby Six for 2/22/15

1. Far From Over 
Blame- Alchemist by A P Indy
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher

Owner: Black Rock Thoroughbreds, LLP 

Derby Points: 10 

Very impressed with his effort in the Withers Stakes. After completely losing almost all chance at the break and flying home to catch a pretty good colt in El Kabeir this is one everyone must keep an eye on. He is one of the few horses really bred for the Triple Crown with Blame on top and being out of an A.P. Indy mare this colt will undoubtedly run all day. He is still a little green, but that's only going to fix itself with time. To do what he did in only his second start is unheard of, and that is why he takes the top spot on my Derby six. 

Last Race: Withers Stakes  
Last Race Finish: 1st 

2. Dortmund 
Big Brown- Our Josephina by Tale Of The Cat 
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Kaleem Shah, Inc.

Derby Points: 20 

What an amazing amount of heart this big colt has, after being passed in the stretch he comes back and wins by a neck that is something you cannot ignore. Heart is one of the most important qualities moving forward on the Triple Crown trail and this horse has it in boatloads. His pedigree is not exactly huge on stamina, but his sire Big Brown was able to win the Kentucky Derby and his broodmare sire Tale of the Cat was a mile and an eighth horse, so maybe that mix will enable him to go farther. He's a very tall young colt and might still be growing into himself. he seems to take a long while to get going which in the Derby could be a negative.

Last Race: Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st

3. Keen Ice 
Curlin- Medomak by Awesome Again
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: Dale L. Romans
Owner: Donegal Racing

Derby Points: 12 

Super impressive run in the Risen Star, and with a little more ground this colt will only get better. He needs a long stretch and he will get that at Churchill Downs he is only going to get better with time and distance. Being by Curling out of an Awesome Again mare this colt is literally crying for a mile and a quarter. He could be a major long shot in the Kentucky Derby, but he needs to earn the points next out in the Louisiana Derby which means he must run first or second to even make it in the gate for the Kentucky Derby. If he gets the points this colt could be a real live long shot in the Kentucky Derby.

Last Race: Risen Star Stakes
Last Race Finish: 3rd


4. Ocean Knight 
Curlin- Ocean Goddess by Stormy Atlantic
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: Stonestreet Stables

Derby Points: 0 

He's so professional for a horse that has only made two career starts, and that will be a huge help moving forward. He seems to be the type of horse that nothing phases him, he has that grinder type style that can be a big positive in the Derby. Only worry is if he will get the distance his bottom side is a little speed oriented, but with Curlin on top it might even out. He's a very talented and professional racehorse, and whoever decides to show up for the Tampa Bay Derby better look out because this colt is the real deal.

Last Race: Sam F. Davis Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st

5. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm

Derby Points: 14

Has loads of ability and is only going to get better going longer. I do worry a little about his bottom side as it isn't exactly stamina laden, but with Giants Causeway on top it shouldn't be to much of an issue at a mile and a quarter. He has such an amazing amount of ability and has a great coverage of ground with his stride. The Breeders Cup Juvenile effort is far better than it seems as he was running into a speed bias, and was much further back than he had ever been before in his career. He has been working forwardly and should return in the Tampa Bay Derby if he stay healthy.

Last Race: Breeders Cup Juvenile
Last Race Finish: 2nd

6. Ocho Ocho Ocho
Street Sense- Winner by Horse Chestnut (SAF)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: James Cassidy
Owner: DP Racing

Derby Points: 10

Nothing wrong with an undefeated horse especially one that shows a lot of heart. He is another that will get better with time and with his undefeated record he's obviously got a lot of ability. He is also very versatile and has a very good closing kick which well help him reel in the several speedy colts in this crop. He posted one work the 29th of January which was a nice handy breeze so looks like he's just starting to get going again. His next start will probably be the San Felipe that's when we will figure out how for real this horse is. His pedigree is a lot more stamina than it first appears and with his versatile style this one could be a real threat come May.

Last Race: Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes
Last Race Finish: 1st

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