Monday, February 2, 2015

Derby Six for 2/2/15

1. Texas Red 
Afleet Alex- Ramatuelle (CHI) by Jeune Homme
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Owner: Brehm, Erich, Detmar, Wayne, Michaels, Lee, Desormeaux, J. Keith et al.

Derby Points:12 

Made his three year old debut Sunday, and he got exactly what he needed out of the effort. Most will think it wasn't a great effort, but he was only about 90% ready for the race, and this is one who is meant for longer distances. He showed a lot in defeat and only looked like he started running the last quarter of a mile. He didn't see the Baffert horse coming at him towards the wire and he looked like he kicked back in past the wire. He's one of the most talented Breeders Cup Juvenile winners I've seen and hes one that has the most potential to get the Derby distance. I'll even go as far to say he won't have an issue with the Belmont distance either.

Last Race: San Vicente Stakes


Last Race Finish: 2nd

2. Ocean Knight 
Curlin- Ocean Goddess by Stormy Atlantic
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: Stonestreet Stables 

Derby Points: 0 

Made his three year old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last Saturday, and was a lot more professional than you would expect him to be at this stage in his career. He has made two starts now and has two wins hard to argue with perfection. I moved him up a spot due to how well he handled the transition from two to three. For how little experience he has he runs like a seasoned professional and that makes him very dangerous at this point in time. Look to see him run next in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

Last Race: Sam F. Davis Stakes 


Last Race Finish 1st 

3. Carpe Diem 
Giant's Causeway- Rebridled Dreams by Unbridled's Song
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Farm 

Derby Points: 14 

Has loads of ability and is only going to get better going longer. I do worry a little about his bottom side as it isn't exactly stamina laden, but with Giants Causeway on top it shouldn't be to much of an issue at a mile and a quarter. He has such an amazing amount of ability and has a great coverage of ground with his stride. The Breeders Cup Juvenile effort is far better than it seems as he was running into a speed bias, and was much further back than he had ever been before in his career. He has been working forwardly and should return in the Fountain of Youth Stakes if he stay healthy. 

Last Race: Breeders Cup Juvenile 


Last Race Finish: 2nd 

4. Mr.Z 
Malibu Moon- Stormy Bear by Storm Cat
Jockey: John Court
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Zayat Stables
Derby Points: 12 

Though he took a complete right turn in the Smarty Jones I will keep him at the number four spot. He's a very talented colt and it looks like it was a just a tooth issue that caused him to make such a drastic and uncharacteristic move to the outside. He's one that I see getting better if he is taken off the pace and made to settle. He has a lot of heart and guts I just wish they would reverse him back to coming from off the pace like he did in the Claibourne Breeders Futurity. He's a gutsy colt and will run much better next out which looks like it's going to be the Rebel Stakes. 

Last Race: Smarty Jones Stakes 


Last Race Finish: 2nd 

5. Ocho Ocho Ocho 
Street Sense- Winner by Horse Chestnut (SAF)
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: James Cassidy
Owner: DP Racing 

Derby Points: 10 

Nothing wrong with an undefeated horse especially one that shows a lot of heart. He is another that will get better with time and with his undefeated record he's obviously got a lot of ability. He is also very versatile and has a very good closing kick which well help him reel in the several speedy colts in this crop. He posted one work the 29th of January which was a nice handy breeze so looks like he's just starting to get going again. His next start will probably be the San Felipe that's when we will figure out how for real this horse is. His pedigree is a lot more stamina than it first appears and with his versatile style this one could be a real threat come May. 

Last Race: Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes 


Last Race Finish: 1st 

6. Upstart 
Flatter- Party Silks by Touch Gold 
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Trainer: Richard A. Violette, Jr.
Owner: Ralph M. Evans 

Derby Points: 16 

Ran lights out in the Holy Bull Stakes a few weeks ago. He has the pedigree to run all day with a Belmont Stakes winner on bottom, and a horse that has produced a couple mile and a quarter horses including horses like Flat Out. This one certainly blossomed over the couple months he had off. He seems to have grown into himself and looks like a more serious racehorse than I originally thought he was going to be. His next out will most likely be the Fountain of Youth with a match up against Carpe Diem that will be his real acid test. 

Last Race: Holy Bull Stakes 


Last Race Finish: 1st 

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