Friday, May 2, 2014
The Final Picks!
The Kentucky Oaks seems to be a lot more transparent this year than the Kentucky Derby, and handicapping this race should be a breeze. With speedy fillies like Sugar Shock and Fashion Plate the pace should set up for a closer or a stalker. They may all be running for second money here as Untapable seems to be unbeatable coming into this Oaks.
Win Play: Untapable- I don't think anyone in this field is capable of beating this filly even if she doesn't exactly handle the distance.
Place Play: Rosalind- Her strong closing kick could very well carry her to at least a second in the Run For The Lillies.
Show Play: Ria Antonia- The longer the distances get the better it's going to be for her and with a decently fast pace expected here she should get the pace scenario she needs to at least run third.
Longshot Plays: Unbridled Forever- Needed the race last out and could fill out the bottom end of the exotics.
Fashion Plate- She could very well take over this race in a big way if allowed. Even if she doesn't get control she may still hang on to fill the bottom of the exotics at a nice price.
This year's Kentucky Derby is a bit of a crap-shot it's anybodies guess. A lot of the really nice one's dropped out early on, and what we are left with is a Derby filled with equally talented horses. One thing's for sure here that this may be one of the most exciting Derby's in awhile.
Win Plays: California Chrome- With my main derby pick dropping out I don't see anyone in here beating California Chrome if he gets the distance. Though a fast pace could soften him up enough that some deep closers can beat him.
Ride On Curlin- When he reverted back to his closing style in the Arkansas Derby I saw major improvement and with Calvin Borel handling the reins this one may just give Calvin his fourth Derby win.
Place Plays: Wildcat Red- Simply put this horse has major heart and I don't think he will go down without a fight. He's never been worse than second in his career and I don't think that's going to change on Derby day.
Show Plays: Candy Boy- I think he needed the race last out and it should set him up well here. He's bred to get the mile and a quarter, and I think with his mid race move he could very well get the jump on the closers.
Danza- Still don't know quite what to think of this colt. If he can achieve a good stalking position and pounce early and show the same explosive kick he could win, but with Pletcher's Derby luck I think he will end up third.
Longshot Plays: Commanding Curve- Can't ignore how well he was moving at the end of the Louisiana Derby and with added distance he may just get even better.
Medal Count- Worried he won't handle the dirt, but if he does he could very well take the roses. Besides it's about time Dale Romans got his Derby victory.