Skip to main content

Taking a Deeper Look Part One

Taking a Deeper Look Part One 

In these installments I'll be looking at the derby canidates, and giving an opinion on thier class, pedigree and whether or not they are a pretender or a contender; when it comes to the Derby.  

1. California Chrome 
Lucky Pulpit- Love the Chase by Not For Love  
Career Statistics: 
Starts: 10
Firsts: 6
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,134,850

Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Art Sherman
Owner: Coburn, Steven and Martin, Perry

Derby Points: 150 

Class: No questions here at all about his class he is one of the most talented horses of this three year old crop by far. Only worries I have for this one is how hot the pace looks like it will be this year. He may not be able to rate off the pace as the only time he took dirt he ran sixth against average California bred stakes company. He usually breaks well though so if he gets off good he may be able to find a good stalking trip instead of being on the lead which he has shown he doesn't need just as long as he is just off of it. 

Pedigree: His sire has produced a Kentucky Derby contender before in Rousing Sermon, but Rousing Sermon has never performed well at a mile and quarter, and he was out of an Awesome Again mare; which would make you think he could handle a distance of ground. His broodmare sire was a pretty average racehorse, and didn't seem to want distance which is very concerning. California Chrome's mother was a cheap claimer, and really doesn't seem like much on the surface. Though you have to love underdog types like California Chrome you also have to be realistic here as well. His pedigree doesn't exactly scream a mile and a quarter which could be his major red flag come Derby day. 

Overall Opinion: California Chrome is a very serious racehorse, and one who could make major waves in the Derby, but I do worry about his pedigree, and ability to get a mile and quarter. Overall I still feel that he has a strong chance to outrun his pedigree. 

Final Decision: California Chrome is a contender. 

2. Vicar's In Trouble 
Into Mischief - Vibrant by Vicar 
Career Statistics: 
Starts: 5
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $788,900

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Trainer: Michael J. Maker
Owner: Ramsey, Kenneth L. and Sarah K

Derby Points: 120 

Class: I do question his class a bit, and worry very strongly that if this one doesn't get things his way he won't run his race. You have to be able to be tactical when it comes to the Derby, because almost always nothing goes the way you want it to unless you're standing in the Derby winner's circle. He tends to do his best running as the lone leader, and in this field that just isn't going to happen. He seemed to really struggle home that last quarter of a mile in the Louisiana Derby, and that really worries me because he's going to have to go an eighth of a mile longer in the Kentucky Derby. 

Pedigree: His sire Into Mischief is the sire of last year's Derby contenders Goldencents, and Vyjack who both have so far shown they want no part of the Derby distance. His mother is by Vicar who was primarily a sprinter and not much else. Making his pedigree highly geared towards one mile, and not much farther than that. 

Overall Opinion: Though he has shown some ability, and looks like a nice dirt mile horse I strongly feel this is one who will be wilting come the homestretch of the Derby. 

Final Decision: Vicar's In Trouble is a pretender 

3. Dance With Fate 
Two Step Salsa- Flirting With Fate by Saint Ballado 
Career Statistics: 
Starts: 8
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $680,050

Jockey: Corey S. Nakatani
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Owner: Alesia, Sharon, Bran Jam Stable and Ciaglia Racing LLC

Derby Points: 108

Class: He has never run faster than a 99 Beyer which is a little concerning. I'm not usually a big numbers person, and like to look at the horse visually, but I like to see at least one triple digit performance before the Derby to at least show the horse has serious ability. I also feel this one is best on turf, and synthetic though he has two okay efforts on dirt I don't think he really likes it. He ran a pretty good race in the Bluegrass, but the race was handed to him on a silver platter, and I think he was starting to get tired nearing the wire. Though a final decision on his derby status hasn't been announced I think they are leaning towards running, and who wouldn't you usually only get one shot at the Derby why not fire it. 

Pedigree: His sire Two Step Salsa was a pretty good racehorse who was able to win on both dirt, and synthetics though primarily at distances no longer than a mile. Dance With Fate's mother Flirting With Fate ran primarily at Charles Town, and took several tries to break her maiden. Dance With Fate's broodmare sire Saint Ballado was able to win on dirt though not farther than a mile and an eighth. His pedigree leans towards the short side which is also a major concern. 

Overall Opinion: His dirt form is questionable and his ability to get a distance of ground is concerning. 

Final Decision: Dance With Fate is a pretender. 

Tune in next time as I review Wicked Strong, Samraat, and Danza. 


Popular posts from this blog

Derby and Oaks Official Selections and Tossers!

With the two biggest races for three year olds right around the corner here are my official selections, tickets to play and horses to toss for the Oaks and Derby! Without further ado ladies first...
Kentucky Oaks Selections, Tossers & Suggested Tickets  The Fillies were a little bit easier to figure out this year as the top three are probably head and shoulders above the rest unfortunately that makes it a chalk fest of an Oaks this year. 
Keepers 2. Coach Rocks 12-1   7. Rayya 12-1  10. Midnight Bisou 5/2  13. Eskimo Kisses 15-1  14. Monomoy Girl 2-1 
Tossers   1. Sassy Sienna 15-1  3. Classy Act 15-1  4. Chocolate Martini 12-1  5. Wonder Gadot 20-1  6. Kelly's Humor 30-1  8. Heavenhasmynikki 50-1  9. Take Charge Paula 15-1    11. My Miss Lilly 10-1  12. Patrona Margarita 30-1
Suggested Tickets 
Exacta box                               Trifecta Box                         Superfecta Box  7 Rayya 12-1                          7 Rayya 12-1                        7 Rayya 12-1  14…

Triple Crown Reactions

I got into horse racing way back in 2004 thanks to a plucky little chestnut horse named Smarty Jones who swept through the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with devastating ease I thought for sure even with my limited horse racing knowledge at that time that he would be racings 12th Triple Crown winner. My hopes were dashed as another plucky little colt named Birdstone swept on by him and dashed all my hopes in that final heartbreaking furlong.  The Triple Crown is part of what fueled my love for this sport at such a young age, and after Smarty Jones I spent most of my life thinking I would never have the privilege to witness a Triple Crown winner. So when American Pharoah came along I relished every hoofbeat, every race-call, and every heart stopping moment along the trail. I probably have watched his Belmont over a hundred times, and I could probably recite it word for word by now. I remember exactly where I was when he crossed that wire first I was hot walking a horse named Castlederg …

Breeders Cup Top 5's Results

Juvenile Fillies Turf  1. Happily finished 14th  2. Rushing Fall finished 1st Paid: $8.00 $4.60 $3.40   3. Significant Form finished 4th 4. Capla Temptress finished 7th 5. Juliet Capulet finished 11th  
Dirt Mile  1. Cupid finished 10th 2. Practical Joke finished 4th 3. Battle Of Midway finished 1st Paid: $30.40 $11.40 $6.60 4. Awesome Slew finished 3rd Paid: $7.00 5. Accelerate finished 9th 
Daily Double paid: $147.40 Juvenile Turf  1. Untamed Domain finished 2nd  Paid: $11.00 $7.00 2. Rajasinghe finished 11th 3. James Garfield finished 10th 4. Mendelssohn finished 1st  Paid: $11.60 $8.40 $5.60 5. Beckford finished 5th  
Exacta paid: $73.30  Daily Double paid: $218  Pick 3 paid: $725.40  Distaff  1. Champagne Room finished 6th 2. Abel Tasman finished 2nd  Paid: $5.40 $3.60 3. Stellar Wind finished 8th 4. Elate finished 4th 5. Forever Unbridled finished 1st  Paid: $9.40 $5.00 $3.40 
Exacta paid: $23.40  Pick 4 paid: $2,375.90  Daily Double Paid: $73.20  Pick 3 paid: $619.20
First Day Totals …