Sunday, April 27, 2014

Deeper Look Number Seven

19. Vinceremos
Pioneerof The Nile- Kettle's Sister by More Than Ready
Career Statistics:
Starts: 5
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $225,266

Connections: 
Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC and Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC

Derby Points: 20 

Class: Worries abot class here as the Tampa Bay Derby field hasn't really proven themselves elsewhere. He looks like another Derby flopper and the only chance he has is if some of the others get horrendous trips or don't show up. He will probably be around 40-1 post time, and he probably deserves those odds. He hasn't shown anything that would make me even consider him a live long shot here. 

Pedigree: By red hot sire Pioneerof The Nile that gives him a dose of speed and stamina. He's out of a Maryland bred mare who never won a race, and competed at the claiming level. His broodmare sire More Than Ready was a horse who did his best running in sprints and tends to pass that on to all of his foals. This is another pedigree geared strongly towards distances up to a mile. 

Overall Opinion: Vinceremos is a horse that hasn't shown he seriously belongs in this group and is probably going to be a complete toss in the Derby. 

Final Decision: Vinceremos is a pretender. 

20. Harry's Holiday 
Harlan's Holiday- Daisy Mason by Orientate 
Career Statistics:
Starts: 8
Firsts: 3
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $186,882

Connections: 
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Trainer: Michael J. Maker
Owner: Skychai Racing LLC, Sand Dollar Stable LLC, Raymond, T. and Wagner, J. 

Derby Points: 20 

Class: Worries about his class, he is another who hasn't shown he really belongs in this group. He also hasn't really shown much on dirt that would warrant a serious look. He is probably one that will be better on synthetics in the future. He is not much to look at and doesn't run like he belongs. Another complete toss come Derby day. 

Pedigree: By Harlan's Holiday which gives a major dose of miler speed. Harry's Holiday is out of a Orientate mare which is another major dose of sprinter speed. This is yet another pedigree geared towards sprinting or mile distances. This one will probably do better sprinting on either the turf or synthetics in the future. 

Overall Opinion: Another that has no serious chance here and will do better at shorter distances in the future. 

Final Decision: Harry's Holiday is a pretender. 

21. Commanding Curve 
Master Command- Mother by Lion Hearted 
Career Statistics:
Starts: 6
Firsts: 1
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $142,434 

Connections: 
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds 

Derby Points: 20 

Class: Took a major step forward in the Louisiana Derby and I look for him to take another step forward in the Derby. I like his deep closing style and with all the speed in this years Derby he could be a serious threat to fill out the bottom of the exotics like his stablemate Golden Soul did last year. He is a improving colt and at this time that's exactly what you want to be. 

Pedigree: Master Command on top gives him a good dose of stamina. His Mother was primarily a sprinter and she was by Lion Hearted who also did his best running in sprints. There is some concern about his distance capabilities, but the way he runs I think he will be just fine here in the Derby. 

Overall Opinion: He's an improving colt and with time he could be a serious threat later in the year if he holds together. 

Final Decision: Commanding Curve is a contender. 

How They Shake Out 

Pretenders: 

(In Order of least preference) 

1.Harry's Holiday 

2. Vinceremos 

3.Vicar's In Trouble 

4.We Miss Artie 

5.Chitu  

6. Tapiture 

7.Intense Holiday  

8.Samraat 

9. Uncle Sigh

10.Dance With Fate

Contenders: 

(In order of highest preference) 

1.Hoppertunity 

2.Candy Boy 

3.Commanding Curve  

4.California Chrome

5.Ride On Curlin  

6.Danza

7. Wicked Strong

8.General A Rod

9. Wildcat Red

10.Medal Count 












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