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Derby Six for 3/30/14

Derby Six for 3/30/2014 


1. Hoppertunity  
Any Given Saturday- Refugee by Unaccounted For
Career Statistics
Starts: 4
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 0
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $410,720

Connections:
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Watson, Karl, Pegram, Michael E. and Weitman, Paul

Derby Points: 55 

Sounds like Baffert will be keeping this one in California for the Santa Anita Derby next weekend. Should he run there he will remain my number one the more experience for this one the better and it wont hurt him to at least show up in the Santa Anita Derby. Considering he doesn't need the points all we would have to do is just put in a good third and he would be all squared away for the Derby and ready to peak on Derby day. 

Race Shown: 2014 Rebel Stakes
Race Finish: 1st
Race Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYpR0HOC59E


2.Candy Boy 
Candy Ride (ARG) - She's An Eleven by In Excess (IRE)
Career Statistics
Starts: 6
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $305,600  

Connections 
Jockey: Gary L. Stevens
Trainer:John W. Sadler 
Owner:C R K Stable 


Derby Points: 10  

He needs to win or run second next weekend in the Santa Anita Derby he must put in a big effort because with California Chrome running there will be no favors given to this talented son of Candy Ride. I still worry slightly about distance with this one but with his stride and the way he covers ground I feel distance shouldn't be a problem. 

Race Shown: 2014 Robert B. Lewis Stakes 
Race Finish: 1st 
Race Link: http://youtu.be/dTeCEB3vY20


3. Ring Weekend 
Tapit- Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance 
Career Statistics: 
Starts: 6
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $255,660

Connections 
Jockey: Daniel Centeno
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Owner: St. Elias Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd.

Derby Points: 50  

He moves up simply because I like his pedigree a lot more than Tapiture's. I also like the unconventional path Graham Motion is taking with this colt. I also like the Calder to Churchill angle as Calder is a deeper and tiring surface and that should help him prep for the Derby. He also wont have to ship when he runs in the Calder Derby so that will have him fresh come Derby day. Only thing is he needs to get some things figured out he seems to have lead issues but those will go away with racing experience.

Race Shown: 2014 Tampa Bay Derby
Finish: 1st


Race Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGlS1TRVVAU 

4.Tapiture 
Tapit- Free Spin by Olympio 
Career Statistics
Starts: 6
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $440,838

Connections 
Jockey:Ricardo Santana, Jr. 
Trainer:Steven M. Asmussen 
Owner:Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC 

Derby Points: 42
He runs in a couple weeks in the Arkansas Derby and he doesn't need a win just a good second and hes guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate. Though I do worry about distance with this one and if you look at him he is built like a miler he's skinny and fish like I'm worried that in the Derby Calvary charge this one might get a bumped and jostled a little to much for him to handle. Though he has shown he is a warrior a couple bumps down a stretch run are nothing compared to the demolition run that is the Derby. 

Race Shown: 2014 Rebel Stakes 
Race Finish: 2nd 
Race Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYpR0HOC59E


5. California Chrome 
Lucky Pulpit- Love The Chase by Not For Love 
Career Statistics:
Starts: 9
Firsts: 5
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $534,850 

Connections: 
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Art Sherman
Owner: Coburn, Steven and Martin, Perry 

Derby Points: 50  

He runs next weekend in the Santa Anita Derby. I love the way he seems to have blossomed going two turns he doesn't need a win there just a decent effort where he hits the board a regression would actually be good for him. It's hard on horses to keep running brilliant races so a step backwards would have him peaking on Derby day and though I do worry slightly about distance with him I feel with just the way he strides out and his action he is one of the smoothest horses I've ever seen he may be something special.

Race Shown: 2014 San Felipe Stakes 
Race Finish: 1st 
Race Link: http://youtu.be/yG_vuFdKqnA

6. Wildcat Red 
D'Wildcat- Racene by Miner's Mark
Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 4
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $690,850 

Connections: 
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Jose Garoffalo
Owner: Honors Stable Corp.  

Derby Points: 90

Though his pedigree doesn't exactly scream a mile and a quarter he has a dosage index of 5.67 which isn't altogether to bad I mean Real Quiet had a dosage index of 5.33 so this one could just get the job done. With the heart he showed in the Florida Derby he stole my heart and coming home down that Churchill stretch he will put up a big fight. He may have to change running styles in the Kentucky Derby as there seems to be a large presence of speed but he certainly seems a lot more tactical than the speed horses I've seen so far this year. I put him on here instead of Constitution because this one has more experience and isn't running against the Apollo curse which hasn't been broken in over a hundred years. Another thing about this colt is his bottom side actually has a pretty decent amount of stamina to it Miner's Mark his broodmare sire was a really nice son of Personal Ensign and he was bred to run all day and his great dam sire was Flying Paster who was a very nice mile and a quarter racehorse. All in all I think his pedigree may be boarder line but I feel it actually somewhat leans towards a mile and quarter and he may have his doubters eating their words come May. 

Race Shown: Florida Derby 2014 
Race Finish: 2nd 
Race link: http://youtu.be/-w0-KD61e8c

Derby Points Leaderboard

I will now be posting the Derby points leader board according to kentuckyderby.com. So you can see who has the points and who is on the outside looking in. 

1. Vicar's In Trouble 
Derby Points: 120 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 

2. Toast Of New York 
Derby Points: 100 
Next Start: Undeclared 

3. Constitution 
Derby Points: 100 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 

4. Intense Holiday 
Derby Points: 93 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 

5. Wildcat Red 
Derby Points: 90 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 
6. We Miss Artie 
Derby Points: 60 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby  

7. Samraat 
Derby Points: 60 
Next Start: Wood Memorial Stakes 

8. Hoppertunity 
Derby Points: 55 
Next Start: Santa Anita Derby 

9. Chitu 
Derby Points: 54 
Next Start: Undeclared 

10. Midnight Hawk 
Derby Points: 52 
Next Start: Undeclared 

11. Ring Weekend 
Derby Points: 50 
Next Start: Calder Derby 

12. California Chrome 
Derby Points: 50 
Next Start: Santa Anita Derby 

13. Tapiture 
Derby Points: 42 
Next Start: Arkansas Derby 

14. General A Rod 
Derby Points: 40 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 

15. Albano 
Derby Points: 34 
Next Start: Undeclared 

16. Cairo Prince 
Derby Points: 24 
Next Start: Undeclared 

17. Uncle Sigh 
Derby Points: 24 
Next Start: Wood Memorial Stakes 

18. Vinceremos 
Derby Points: 20 
Next Start: Undeclared 

19. Harry's Holiday 
Derby Points: 20 
Next Start: (Probable) Bluegrass Stakes 

20. Commanding Curve 
Derby Points: 20 
Next Start: Undeclared 

21. Ride On Curlin 
Derby Points: 15  
Next Start: Arkansas Derby 

22. Kristo 
Derby Points: 14 
Next Start: Wood Memorial 

23. Coastline 
Derby Points: 13 
Next Start: (Probable) Bluegrass Stakes 

24. Tamarando 
Derby Points: 12 
Next Start: (Probable) Bluegrass Stakes 

25. Strong Mandate 
Derby Points: 11 
Next Start: Arkansas Derby 

26. Rise Up 
Derby Points: 10 
Next Start: Undeclared 

27. Giovanni Boldini 
Derby Points: 10 
Next Start: Undeclared 

28. Candy Boy 
Derby Points: 10 
Next Start: Santa Anita Derby 

29. In Trouble 
Derby Points: 10 
Next Start: Undeclared 

30. Noble Moon 
Derby Points: 10 
Next Start: Undeclared 

Other Notable Point Totals 

33. Commissioner 
Derby Points: 10  
Next Start: Arkansas Derby 

35. Conquest Titan 
DerbyPoints: 9 
Next Start: Arkansas Derby 

36. Dance With Fate 
Derby Points: 8 
Next Start: Bluegrass Stakes 

42. Schoolofhardrocks 
Derby Points: 5 
Next Start: Santa Anita Derby  

NR. Social Inclusion 
Derby Points: 0 
Next Start: Wood Memorial Stakes 

NR. Bayern 
Derby Points: 0 
Next Start: (Probable) Arkansas Derby 

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Derby Six for 4/20/18

1. Good Magic 
Curlin- Glinda The Good by Hard Spun
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: eFive Racing Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables LLC

Career Stats:
Starts: 5
Wins: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $1,855,000

Derby Points: 134 

Analysis:

Good Magic is the type of horse that needs racing to get fit and he proved that in spades in the Bluegrass. Many are doubting the final time in the Bluegrass but if you watch closely his ears were flipping every which way and he wasn't entirely focused on the task at hand in other words there is plenty left in the tank. I'm not as concerned with his final time in the Bluegrass as he ran fast enough in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in the later stages of the race to almost guarantee he's going to love the Derby distance. Chad Brown is one of the greatest trainers in the game right now and he knows how to get a horse to peak on the right day, and he's always held this colt in high regard. I have no doubt or qualms that he …