Friday, October 25, 2013
2013 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
2. Fed Biz*
5. Broadway Empire
6. Burjo De Olleros (BRZ)
7. Easter Gift
8. Golden Ticket
10. Holy Lute
11. Hymn Book
12. Laugh Track
13. Pants On Fire
*= Denotes Breeders Cup Challenge winner
Graydar has first preference in the Classic
Laugh Track has second preference in the Sprint
This years Dirt Mile is one of the deeper fields we have seen since the races inception in 2007 win Corinthian dominated the Dirt Mile. The Dirt Mile tends to get horses who are considered the "second Tier" of the top older horses most of these have been running against the best horses in their perspective age group at either sprint distances or classic distances. Today I will break down the Dirt Mile by contenders that have first preference in this race and I will give you my top 5 picks and plays as always.
Centralinteligence: won the Triple Bend Handicap which gave him in automatic berth in here a very talented son of Smarty Jones was Smarty's first US GR1 winner win he wont that race. Last out he ran sixth in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, I feel that six furlongs is definitely not what this horse wants to run and the one mile distance of the Dirt Mile is just what this horses needs. This one is very dangerous and one you should definitely include on all tickets.
Fed Biz: has run seven races this year and has hit the board in five of those, he's a versatile type that don't think Bob Baffert knows quite what to do with him he's been on dirt turf and synthetic this year been shipped to New York and back. Fed Biz is one who seems to always come knocking ran an okay fifth in the Metropolitan Handicap one of the major preps for this race, he hasn't run since a win the Pat O'Brien Handicap at Del Mar in which he set a track record. He does have past Breeders Cup experience when he ran eighth in last year Dirt Mile in which he lost to Tapizar. He always seems to finish in the top four this year and the freshening Baffert gave him could very well help him.
Alpha: this years Woodward winner opts to run here instead of the Classic I think Kiaran McLaughlin made the right decision on this one, but with only one win this year I wont be including this one on my tickets yes he can be dangerous but he hasn't been able to put back to back races together since last years wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers. Though the addition of blinkers has helped him considerably I feel he is just a step below many in this group this year.
Broadway Empire: this one just started racing this year and what year it has been for this son of Empire Maker. He destroyed the highly regarded Departing in the Oklahoma Derby, he has made six starts this year with four wins and a second to show for it only finishing off the board once this one is always right there. He always is right there at the finish the one off the board finish was at Hollywood Park in the GR3 Affirmed Handicap which I forgive him for because he didn't really handle the synthetic that day. This is one that has the talent and ability to do what Caleb's Posse did in 2011 and be another three year old to take the Dirt Mile.
Brujo De Olleros (BRZ): has three races this year with one win and two seconds to show for it this one could be a nice long-shot play. He has been very consistent this year and could very well pull off an upset is he gets a clear path and nice pace to close into.
Easter Gift: this one has made six starts this year with three wins and two seconds. He is all speed and ran an okay fifth against some of this last out in the Kelso Handicap he wont be getting lose on the lead with other better speed horses in here. I wont be including this one simply because he wont be able to get loose and he seems to need to get loose to win.
Golden Ticket: with seven races and three wins this year Golden Ticket has been running against some of the best older horses in the nation including Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man (Breeders Cup Classic winner and runner-up from 2012). Goldent Ticket may enjoy the cut back in distance and step down in class being by Speightstown he may love the one mile distance but unfortunately he will be very short priced in here.
Goldencents: one of the most hard knocking three year olds we have seen this year has been on a string of seconditis as of late and can't seem to break through but those second place finishes have been at sprint distances. He is a horse that can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack be it closing from off of it or wheeling away on the lead. This one has run very well at Santa Anita which has proven to be a vital advantage when it comes to these Breeders Cup races. He also has a win at the distance on this track he is one I would not leave out.
Holy Lute: this three year old son of Midnight Lute would need to step up big time to win this one he has four starts in this life with two wins and two thirds, ran third last out in the Indiana Derby would need to take a major step forward to win this one.
Hymn Book: with four starts this year and no wins he has been right there though and hasn't finished off the board but he would also need to take a big step forward to win this one ran a decent third in the Kelso Handicap at Belmont. I would think this one could upset if he gets the right pace in front of him but I favor Brujo De Olleros over him.
Laugh Track: four starts and two wins for this Mark Casse trained colt, he won the Vigil Stakes at Woodbine this year and ran second in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland last out needs to prove he can run on dirt.
Pants On Fire: six starts and three wins for this son of Jump Start. He has been right there all year but against some of the lesser horses in this particular division he has managed to win two in a row coming up to this race and I always say a horse on a roll is always dangerous.
Taptowne: nine starts and two wins for this son of Tapit. Would need to take a major step forward to pull this off considering how deep this field is this year he may have bit off more than he can chew in this spot.
Verrazano: when I think of words to describe Verrazano some words that come to mind are brilliant and absolutely difficult to beat at distances shorter than a mile and eighth. He is another very difficult three year old that will definitely be right there at the finish. When he wins he is dominate but the only thing is once a horse looks him in the eye he tends to fold up and quit and with so many top horses in here he might be folding at the top of the stretch when the closers start coming, or he could be opening up and winning by five its give or take with this one but since he is so dominate he is one I can't leave out.
2nd Broadway Empire
3rd Brujo De Olleros