Monday, April 7, 2014

Derby Six for 4/7/14

Derby Six for 4/7/14 


1. Hoppertunity 
Any Given Saturday- Refugee by Unaccounted For
Career Statistics
Starts: 5
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $610,720 

Connections:
Jockey: Mike E. Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Watson, Karl, Pegram, Michael E. and Weitman, Paul

Derby Points: 95 

He ran a very credible race in the Santa Anita Derby he was really moving coming for home and possibly if the hole at the top of the stretch had opened sooner he may have been able to collar California Chrome and possibly could have won the race. He galloped out really well which only makes me believe he really be able to handle a mile and a quarter and seeing as he seems to be the most tactical horse on he Derby trail up to this point he remains my number one pick for the Derby.
Race Shown: 2014 Santa Anita Derby 
Race Finish: 2nd 
Race Link: http://youtu.be/a10u6V_Ldus 

2. Wicked Strong 
Hard Spun- Moyne Abbey by Charismatic 
Career Statistics
Starts: 6
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 1
Earnings: $704,610 

Connections 
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Trainer: James A. Jerkens
Owner: Centennial Farms

Derby Points: 102 

Finally a horse that can close ground on the Derby Trail! After all these front running and stalking horses I was finding it hard to pick a horse that could legitimately close and well now I have found one. His race in the Wood Memorial showed he can pick up the pieces late. Since the pace will undoubtedly collapse with so many speed horses in this years derby it looks like whenever you find a closer you better latch on tight especially when they have the type of pedigree this one has. With Charismatic on bottom he should be able to run all day and his father Hard Spun was no slouch either at a mile and a quarter and longer. Wicked Strong will run all day and he will be able to pick up the pieces late just the style you need in this years derby. Only worry is with a collapsing pace will all those tired horses get in his way or will he be able to find the right holes at the right times? 

Race Shown: 2014 Wood Memorial 
Race Finish: 1st 
Race Link: http://youtu.be/a4jwGXrXETc 

3. California Chrome 
Lucky Pulpit- Love The Chase by Not For Love 
Career Statistics:
Starts: 10
Firsts: 6
Seconds: 1
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $1,134,850 

Connections: 
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Art Sherman
Owner: Coburn, Steven and Martin, Perry

Derby Points: 150 

He certainly asserted himself in the Santa Anita Derby and made himself look very good. I worry about distance with him and after the way he galloped out I can't help but worry more he didn't have an all together nice gallop out as both Hoppertunity and Candy Boy galloped out past him without a problem. Though his pedigree does have some mile and a quarter influences they aren't that strong and though he is brilliant there is an abundance of speed in this years Derby and his running style doesn't exactly put him in a favorable position. 

Race Shown: 2014 Santa Anita Derby 
Race Finish: 1st 
Race Link: http://youtu.be/a10u6V_Ldus  

4. Tapiture 
Tapit- Free Spin by Olympio 
Career Statistics
Starts: 6
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $440,838

Connections 
Jockey:Ricardo Santana, Jr. 
Trainer:Steven M. Asmussen 
Owner:Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC 

Derby Points: 42 

He runs next weekend in the Arkansas Derby and he really needs to show he can run farther than a mile and an eighth what I'm looking for is a dominat but reasonably workman like victory with a strong gallop out that could indicate a progression but also an ability to get a mile and a quarter. He showed he is tough now he needs to prove he has what it takes to get a mile and quarter. He will also need to prove he can handle taking dirt he hasn't taken any dirt in either of his victories which poses the question on whether or not he will be able to win while taking dirt.

Race Shown: 2014 Rebel Stakes
Race Finish: 2nd
Race Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYpR0HOC59E

5. Ring Weekend 
Tapit- Free The Magic by Cryptoclearance 
Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 2
Seconds: 2
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $305,660 

Connections: 
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Trainer: H. Graham Motion
Owner: St. Elias Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds 

Derby Points: 50 

He ran incredibly green last out and though he still seems to be a bit headstrong I still like the move he made until he got a little lost at the top of the stretch in the Calder Derby. Though once he got everything figured out again he seemed to kick back in a make up a little ground so I'm not giving up hope just yet on this talented son of Tapit. I feel that though he may be green he seems like he can adjust to things and may be able to come from off the pace if asked to do so and with an already automatic Derby bid he has nothing to worry about points wise. 

Race Shown: 2014 Calder Derby 
Race Finish: 2nd 
Race Link: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/CRC/2014/4/5/7/calder-derby 

6. Wildcat Red 
D'Wildcat- Racene by Miner's Mark
Career Statistics:
Starts: 7
Firsts: 4
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 0
Earnings: $690,850 

Connections: 
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Jose Garoffalo
Owner: Honors Stable Corp.  

Derby Points: 90

Though his pedigree doesn't exactly scream a mile and a quarter he has a dosage index of 5.67 which isn't altogether to bad I mean Real Quiet had a dosage index of 5.33 so this one could just get the job done. With the heart he showed in the Florida Derby he stole my heart and coming home down that Churchill stretch he will put up a big fight. He may have to change running styles in the Kentucky Derby as there seems to be a large presence of speed but he certainly seems a lot more tactical than the speed horses I've seen so far this year. I put him on here instead of Constitution because this one has more experience and isn't running against the Apollo curse which hasn't been broken in over a hundred years. Another thing about this colt is his bottom side actually has a pretty decent amount of stamina to it Miner's Mark his broodmare sire was a really nice son of Personal Ensign and he was bred to run all day and his great dam sire was Flying Paster who was a very nice mile and a quarter racehorse. All in all I think his pedigree may be boarder line but I feel it actually somewhat leans towards a mile and quarter and he may have his doubters eating their words come May. 

Race Shown: Florida Derby 2014 
Race Finish: 2nd 
Race link: http://youtu.be/-w0-KD61e8c

Derby Points Leaderboard 

1. California Chrome 
Points: 150 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 

2.Vicar's In Trouble 
Derby Points: 120 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby

3. Wicked Strong
Derby Points: 102
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

4. Samraat
Derby Points: 100
Next Start: Kentucky Derby

5. Constitution
Derby Points: 100
Next Start: Kentucky Derby

6. Hoppertunity
Derby Points: 95
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

7. Intense Holiday
Derby Points: 93
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

8. Wildcat Red
Derby Points: 90
Next Start: Kentucky Derby

9. We Miss Artie
Derby Points: 60 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby  

10. Chitu
Derby Points: 54 
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

11. Midnight Hawk
Derby Points: 52 
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

12. Ring Weekend
Derby Points: 50
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

13. Tapiture
Derby Points: 42
Next Start: Arkansas Derby

14. General A Rod
Derby Points: 40 
Next Start: Kentucky Derby 

15. Albano
Derby Points: 34 
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

16. Candy Boy
Derby Points: 30
Next Start: (Probable) Kentucky Derby

17. Cairo Prince
Derby Points: 24 
Next Start: Undeclared

18. Uncle Sigh
Derby Points: 24 
Next Start: Undeclared

19. Vinceremos
Derby Points: 20 
Next Start: (Probable) Bluegrass Stakes

20. Harry's Holiday
Derby Points: 20 
Next Start: Bluegrass Stakes

21. Commanding Curve
Derby Points: 20 
Next Start: Undeclared 





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